Reading ESNT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ESNT free→Reading ESNT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ESNT free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance. Compared with sector peers, ESNT trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 33% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $58.38. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $58 ESNT trades at 8× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $75 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $62–$68. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 22% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.20x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.82 → $1.78 (-2.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 7 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 44% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 13.2% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$98.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$205.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,593.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'inexpensive' to 'fair'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in net income would signal weakening performance in a challenging market.
Confirms:Q2 net income reported below $155 million.
Disproves:Q2 net income remains above $155 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ESNT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 8, 2026 , Essent Group Ltd. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this report, including Exhibit 99.1, has been “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$62.00 – $68.00 (median $64.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-03
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ESNT Essent Group Ltd. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | fair | moderate |
RKT ROCKET COMPANIES INC | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 11 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ACT Enact Holdings, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PFSI PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
UWMC UWM Holdings Corp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Essent Group aims to increase its dividend per share as part of its capital management strategy.
Essent Group focuses on maintaining robust cash flow from its core operations.
Essent Group is actively repurchasing common shares as part of its capital management strategy.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth slows, it could hurt Essent's performance. This is key for understanding the market conditions.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below its median of around 12%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays above its median.
Why it matters: High unemployment claims can mean economic problems. This may impact Essent's business.
Confirms:Unemployment claims rise above 300,000.
Disproves:Unemployment claims stay below 250,000.
Why it matters: An increase would reflect strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Confirms:The Board declares a quarterly dividend greater than $0.35.
Disproves:The Board maintains the dividend at $0.35 or lowers it.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show trust in the company's value and cash flow.
Confirms:Share repurchases exceed $200 million in 2026.
Disproves:Share repurchases fall below $200 million in 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in new insurance shows less demand in the mortgage market.
Confirms:New mortgage insurance written was below $10 billion.
Disproves:New mortgage insurance written is above $10 billion.
Why it matters: An increase in the dividend would show strong cash flow and management confidence.
Confirms:Announcement of a dividend increase above $0.35 per share.
Disproves:No dividend increase announced, or a decrease in the dividend.
Why it matters: More repurchases show good capital management and trust in the stock.
Confirms:Essent repurchases more than 3 million shares in Q2.
Disproves:Repurchases fall below 3 million shares in Q2.