Reading ACT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ACT free→Reading ACT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ACT free→NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating some inconsistency in cash backing reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 16% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts from ACT and the performance of sector bellwethers like FNF, RYAN, and FAF. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $43.13. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $42 ACT trades at 9× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $50 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 15% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.07x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.19 → $1.19 (-0.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$86.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$221.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,096.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Dropping below this level could show money problems and affect capital plans.
Confirms:PMIERs sufficiency was below 160%.
Disproves:PMIERs sufficiency was at or above 160%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ACT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2) is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ACT Enact Holdings, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
RKT ROCKET COMPANIES INC | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 11 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ESNT Essent Group Ltd. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
PFSI PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
UWMC UWM Holdings Corp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Maintain disciplined execution and resilient credit performance to drive long-term value.
Continue to grow new insurance written while managing expenses and risks.
Increase capital return to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
Focus on increasing operating income through strategic initiatives.
Continue efforts to enhance net income through operational efficiencies.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would show weaker demand for mortgage insurance, affecting growth.
Confirms:Q2 new insurance written was below $12 billion.
Disproves:Q2 new insurance written was above $12 billion.
Why it matters: Going over this number shows better profits and good cost control.
Confirms:Operating income was above $180 million for Q2.
Disproves:Operating income was below $180 million for Q2.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2) is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.…
Other Events. On February 3, 2026, we announced that the Board of Directors of the Company has approved authorization of a share repurchase program of up to $500 million of the Company’s outstanding shares of common stock. The Company has also entered into a stock repurchase agreement with Genworth Financial, Inc. (“Genworth”) for the repurchase of the Company’s stock. A copy of the related press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.3 and Stock Repurchase Agreement with Genworth is furnished as…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On September 30, 2025 (the “Closing Date”), Enact Holdings, Inc. (the “Corporation”) entered into a Credit Agreement together with each lender party thereto (collectively, the “Lenders”), and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as Administrative Agent (the “Agent”). The Credit Agreement provides for a revolving credit facility in the initial aggregate principal amount of $435 million (the “Revolving Facility”), including a $217.5 million accordion. The Revol…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information contained in