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Onity Group, Inc. (ONIT)
NYSEFinancialsMortgage FinanceSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$38.02+3.01%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 83% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile, historically a value-trap pattern. If ONIT reverses course and raises guidance next quarter, that's a sharp positive shift. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Mortgage Finance
- Market cap
- $308.87M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1996-06-04
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $38.02. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$224.47consensus
Range $188.77 – $255.11
vs price: -83% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$232.26consensus
Range $189.02 – $275.50
vs price: -84% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $38 ONIT trades at 2× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $223 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
2.2x
peer 12.5x · own history —
Premium
0.2x peer
Growth the price needs
-83%
our forecast 13%
Our fair value
$223.21
range $187.77 – $256.95
WhyPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 83% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
12th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted -12.51x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
1st pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish1 analysts, 100% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.21 → $2.21 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 35.5% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutralProvisional
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$174.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$354.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,653.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for next earnings report on August 4, 2026
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how Onity is doing now and in the future.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows better results than expected. This means strong performance.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows worse results than expected. This means weak performance.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-0215d agoInvesting.com
Advances: Share buyback program up to $10M
Buyback program increased, aligning with capital allocation goals.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If ONIT reverses course and raises guidance next quarter (came in LOWERED as of 2026-05-05), that's a sharp positive shift. The Street usually rewards a 'crisis averted' bounce-back.
- If sector bellwethers like RKT, PFSI, and UWMC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting ONIT and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on ONIT and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like RKT, PFSI, and UWMC start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping ONIT and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits ONIT and other Financials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0215d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. Regulatory Approval of Reverse Asset Sale On May 28, 2026, Onity Group Inc. (together with its wholly owned subsidiary Onity Mortgage Corporation, “Onity” or the “Company”) received regulatory approval of the sale to Finance of America Reverse LLC (“FAR”) of Onity’s reverse mortgage servicing portfolio and certain reverse originations assets. As previously disclosed, Onity has agreed to sell reverse mortgage servicing rights comprised of approximately 20,000 Ginnie Mae home equi…
Capital allocationpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-13 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.