Reading NMIH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NMIH free→Reading NMIH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NMIH free→NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, NMIH is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. If NMIH cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $37.24. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $37 NMIH trades at 8× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $42 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 11% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.13x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.29 → $1.29 (-0.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 4 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 21.8% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -0.8% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$98.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$244.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,808.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong EPS performance is a management priority. Staying above $0.50 signals good health.
Confirms:EPS reported above $0.50 for Q2.
Disproves:EPS reported below $0.50 for Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NMIH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 30, 2026, NMI Holdings, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information included in, or furnished with, this report has been "furnished" and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), nor shall it be deemed incorporat…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NMIH NMI Holdings, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | fair | moderate |
RKT ROCKET COMPANIES INC | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 11 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ACT Enact Holdings, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ESNT Essent Group Ltd. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
PFSI PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on sustaining strong earnings per share performance.
Aim to enhance revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Focus on improving operating income through efficiency and growth.
Why it matters: A drop in net income could signal weaker performance compared to the previous quarter.
Confirms:Q2 net income reported below $94 million.
Disproves:Q2 net income reported above $94 million.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This affects NMI Holdings' outlook.
Confirms:NMI Holdings reports revenue growth below its median of 12% year over year.
Disproves:NMI Holdings maintains revenue growth above its median of 12% year over year.
Why it matters: A higher loss ratio may mean more claims. This could hurt how much money is made.
Confirms:Q2 loss ratio reported above 14%.
Disproves:Q2 loss ratio reported below 14%.
Why it matters: A drop in NIW may show less need for mortgage insurance. This could hurt future growth.
Confirms:NIW reported below $12 billion for Q2.
Disproves:NIW reported above $12 billion for Q2.
Why it matters: A decline in book value per share could indicate weakening financial health.
Confirms:Book value per share reported below $34.57.
Disproves:Book value per share reported above $34.57.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key driver for NMI Holdings. A drop below 13% could signal trouble.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 13% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported at or above 13% year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 10, 2026, NMI Holdings, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information included in, or furnished with, this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, has been "furnished" and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amen…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Director Effective February 12, 2026 (the "Effective Date"), the Board of Directors (the "Board") of NMI Holdings, Inc. (the "Company") expanded the Board to ten members and appointed Renu Agrawal as an independent director of the Company. A copy of the press release announcing Ms. Agrawal's appointment is attached hereto as Exhibit…