NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH)

NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-23

$42.55+2.55%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge NMI Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.51 → 5.48 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	160.8M
EPS	—	1.307
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	632.25M
EPS	—	5.272
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	658.99M
EPS	—	5.479

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain EPS near $1.28 per share	Profit margins remain stable with an EPS around $1.28 per share.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $1.28 for 2026-Q4	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted diluted EPS increased from $1.28 in 2026-Q1 to $1.38 in 2026-Q2, up 14% year-over-year from $1.22 in 2025-Q2. Net income also rose from $99.3M to $105.8M quarter-over-quarter. The trajectory is delivering consistent EPS growth as management emphasized. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Stabilize or improve operating income near $125 million	A supporting condition in NMI Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating income >= $125 million.	Intact	Operating income falls below $125 million next year	Operating income: $136.946M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $125 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 2026136,946,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income increased from $124.9M in 2026-Q1 to $136.9M in 2026-Q2, up from $123.6M in 2025-Q2. This reflects improved underwriting and expense management. The trajectory is delivering enhanced operating income consistent with management's focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Sustain revenue growth near 6% YoY	A primary condition in NMI Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 5.9% next year	Revenue growth: 8.12% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20268.120659 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7b1e3d55-2880-4507-9d85-67fabea0518b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Total revenue increased from $183.5M in 2026-Q1 to $187.9M in 2026-Q2, a 6% increase year-over-year from $173.8M in 2025-Q2. Net premiums earned also rose steadily. The trajectory shows consistent revenue growth aligned with management's stated goal. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain valuation discount to peers with PE below 13	The stock trades cheap with a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.4, below peers.	Intact	PE rises above 13 without earnings growth	P/E (TTM): 8.39x As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 20268.3925 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: NMIH:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.48

$5.35 → $5.48 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.35	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-25	$5.35	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-26	$5.35	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-27	$5.35	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-28	$5.35	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-29	$5.35	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-30	$5.35	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-31	$5.40	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-01	$5.38	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-02	$5.40	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-03	$5.44	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-04	$5.44	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-05	$5.42	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-06	$5.48	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-07	$5.42	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-08	$5.42	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-09	$5.42	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-10	$5.48	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-12	$5.48	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-13	$5.48	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-14	$5.42	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-15	$5.42	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-16	$5.42	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-17	$5.42	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-18	$5.42	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-19	$5.42	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-20	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-21	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-22	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-23	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-24	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-25	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-26	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-27	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-28	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-29	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-30	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-31	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-01	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-02	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-03	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-04	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-05	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-06	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-07	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-08	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-09	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-10	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-11	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-12	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-13	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-14	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-15	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-16	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-17	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-18	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-19	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-20	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-21	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-22	$5.45	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-23	$5.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-24	$5.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-25	$5.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-26	$5.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-27	$5.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-28	$5.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-29	$5.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-30	$5.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-01	$5.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-02	$5.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-03	$5.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-04	$5.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-05	$5.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-06	$5.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-07	$5.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-08	$5.50	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-09	$5.50	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-10	$5.50	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-11	$5.50	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-12	$5.50	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-13	$5.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-14	$5.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-15	$5.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-16	$5.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-17	$5.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-18	$5.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-19	$5.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-20	$5.48	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-21	$5.48	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-22	$5.48	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-23	$5.48	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-24	$5.48	Unavailable	5 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	2
2026-06-01	6	1
2026-07-01	6	1
2026-08-01	5	2
2026-09-01	5	2
2026-10-01	5	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain EPS near $1.28 per shareDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Stabilize or improve operating income near $125 millionOperating income: $136.946M
Sustain revenue growth near 6% YoYRevenue growth: 8.12%
Maintain valuation discount to peers with PE below 13P/E (TTM): 8.39x

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-18.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

NMI Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

NMIH is a financial business with a value-oriented, earnings-growth thesis rather than a turnaround story. Its thesis state is intact, and recent results have kept its performance in the top half of its industry.

What's priced into NMI Holdings, Inc.

The valuation evidence describes NMIH as cheap versus peers, with expectations below the model's estimate and low fragility in what is priced in. The snapshot labels those expectations as justified, but the broader value assessment has medium confidence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management's priorities are on track: recent results show growth in adjusted earnings per share, revenue, and operating income. Several recent earnings updates were positive, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, and a guidance cut or lower rates could weigh on fundamentals.

What NMI Holdings, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on NMIH maintaining earnings and revenue growth without cutting guidance. Sector conditions also matter: continued strong results from named financial-sector peers could support momentum, while rate cuts are flagged as a risk.