Reading UWMC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UWMC free→Reading UWMC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UWMC free→NYSEFinancialsMortgage FinanceSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with UWMC trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 33% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.44. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.35 UWMC trades at 8× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $3.60 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $4.40–$8.50. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 35% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted -19.33x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.11 → $0.10 (-6.7% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 30% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 70.2% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$216.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$506.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,381.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insights into UWM's performance amid a mixed market. Key metrics will be closely watched.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows revenue and profit growth that is better than expected.
Confirms the other:The earnings report reveals revenue and profit growth that is lower than expected.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for UWMC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, the following exhibits are furnished as part of this Current Report. Exhibit No. Description 99.1 Press release dated May 6, 2026 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document) SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be sign ed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. Date: May 6, 2026 UWM HOLDINGS CORPORATION By: /s/ Rami…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$4.40 – $8.50 (median $5.25) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-07
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
UWMC UWM Holdings Corp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 23 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
RKT ROCKET COMPANIES INC | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 12 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ACT Enact Holdings, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ESNT Essent Group Ltd. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
PFSI PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
13 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Finalize the acquisition of Two Harbors, Inc. to enhance strategic growth.
Continue to provide a consistent dividend of $0.10 per share to shareholders.
Focus on enhancing operating income through strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: A drop below the median would signal a shift in the financial sector's growth phase. This could impact UWM's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth in the financial sector falls below its median level.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median level.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can affect UWM's mortgage business. Strong sales may show consumer confidence.
Confirms one read:The retail sales report shows a big increase from last month.
Confirms the other:The retail sales report shows a big decrease from last month.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On May 6, 2026, the Company announced that its Board of Directors had declared a cash dividend of $0.10 per share on the outstanding shares of Class A common stock. The dividend is payable on July 9, 2026, to stockholders of record at the close of business on June 18, 2026. Additionally, the Board approved a proportional distribution to SFS Corp., which is payable on or about July 9, 2026. To the extent required by law, the Company will post Form 8937, with respect t…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On March 11, 2026, UWM Holdings Corporation posted an investor presentation providing additional information regarding its pending acquisition of Two Harbors, Inc. A copy of the presentation is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, the following exhibits are furnished as part of this Current Report. Exhibit No. Description 99.1 Press release dated February 25, 2026 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document) SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. Date: February 25, 2026 UWM HOLDINGS CORPORATION By…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On February 25, 2026, the Company announced that its Board of Directors had declared a cash dividend of $0.10 per share on the outstanding shares of Class A common stock. The dividend is payable on April 9, 2026, to stockholders of record at the close of business on March 19, 2026. Additionally, the Board approved a proportional distribution to SFS Corp., which is payable on or about April 9, 2026. To the extent required by law, the Company will post Form 8937, with…