Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT)

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-23

$66.80+1.67%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Essent Group Ltd.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.76 → 7.78 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	350.92M
EPS	—	1.828
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.36B
EPS	—	7.51
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.42B
EPS	—	7.783

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain cash from operating activities near $192 million	A primary condition in Essent Group Ltd.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $190 million.	Intact	Cash from operations falls below $190 million	Cash from operations: $197.09M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $190 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 2026197,090,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Cash from operating activities ranged from $189.5 million in 2025-Q2 to $197.1 million in 2026-Q2, showing stable and strong cash flow generation. The trajectory is delivering consistent cash flow supporting capital management. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Increase dividend per share to at least $0.35 per quarter	It raised dividends from $0.31 to $0.35 per share recently.	Intact	Dividend per share fails to reach $0.35 by 2026-Q1	Dividend per share: $0.35 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.35 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 20260.35 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0b5cfd64-03a3-4cab-a39b-3568e872cec0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share increased from $0.31 in 2025-Q1 to $0.35 in 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2, reflecting management's commitment to increasing shareholder returns. The trajectory is delivering consistent dividend growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Sustain about 10% annual revenue growth	A primary condition in Essent Group Ltd.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=9.7% YoY.	Improving	YoY revenue growth falls below ~9.7% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Repurchase common shares worth at least $214 million	The company repurchased $214 million in shares last quarter.	Intact	Repurchases fall significantly below $214 million in 2026-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2 quarters (2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2). Essent repurchased 3.5 million shares for $214 million in 2026-Q1 and increased to 5.8 million shares for $348 million by 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows active share repurchase but limited historical recurrence. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.78

$7.52 → $7.78 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.52	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-07-25	$7.67	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-07-26	$7.67	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-07-27	$7.67	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-07-28	$7.52	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-07-29	$7.52	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-07-30	$7.67	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-07-31	$7.52	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-01	$7.52	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-02	$7.67	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-03	$7.52	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-04	$7.52	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-05	$7.52	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-06	$7.67	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-07	$7.52	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-08	$7.67	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-09	$7.67	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-10	$7.67	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-11	$7.75	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-12	$7.77	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-13	$7.77	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-14	$7.52	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-15	$7.52	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-16	$7.52	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-17	$7.52	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-18	$7.52	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-19	$7.52	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-20	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-21	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-22	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-23	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-24	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-25	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-26	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-27	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-28	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-29	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-30	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-31	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-01	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-02	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-03	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-04	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-05	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-06	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-07	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-08	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-09	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-10	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-11	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-12	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-13	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-14	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-15	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-16	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-17	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-18	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-19	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-20	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-21	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-22	$7.72	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-23	$7.76	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-24	$7.76	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-25	$7.76	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-26	$7.76	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-27	$7.76	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-28	$7.76	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-29	$7.76	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-30	$7.76	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-01	$7.76	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-02	$7.76	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-03	$7.76	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-04	$7.76	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-05	$7.76	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-06	$7.77	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-07	$7.77	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-08	$7.83	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-09	$7.83	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-10	$7.83	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-11	$7.83	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-12	$7.83	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-13	$7.79	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-14	$7.79	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-15	$7.79	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-16	$7.79	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-17	$7.79	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-18	$7.79	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-19	$7.79	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-20	$7.78	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-21	$7.78	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-22	$7.78	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-23	$7.78	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-24	$7.78	Unavailable	6 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	5
2026-06-01	4	5
2026-07-01	4	4
2026-08-01	3	4
2026-09-01	3	5
2026-10-01	3	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain cash from operating activities near $192 millionCash from operations: $197.09M
Increase dividend per share to at least $0.35 per quarterDividend per share: $0.35 per share
Sustain about 10% annual revenue growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Repurchase common shares worth at least $214 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 6, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Essent Group Ltd. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a financial company with a value-oriented, income-supported thesis rather than a high-growth story. Its long-term thesis is on watch: recent performance is below its industry cohort, even as two recent quarters brought earnings beats.

What's priced into Essent Group Ltd.

The evidence rates ESNT as cheap versus peers, and the priced-in tag is justified with low fragility. Valuation rose from 64.7 to 76.9, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations remain cautious; the evidence does not quantify what the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

In the near term, management’s stated priorities are on track: the dividend per share has risen, operating cash flow has been stable, and share repurchases increased in the first half of 2026. Recent earnings results are mixed over the longer evidence window, with two beats in 2026 after a miss in 2025, while sector conditions remain a headwind.

What Essent Group Ltd. hinges on

A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, and rate cuts from the current 3.88% could weigh on ESNT and other Financials names. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers FNF, FAF, and ACT would support sector momentum; the evidence also flags recent peer misses and ESNT’s past deep miss as risks to monitor.