ROCKET COMPANIES INC (RKT)

NYSEFinancialsFinancial - MortgagesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$11.73-0.09%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ROCKET COMPANIES INC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-8.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.86 → 0.79 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$2.5B–$2.7Bnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	2.56B
EPS	—	0.14
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	10.83B
EPS	—	0.587
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	11.4B
EPS	—	0.792

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage debt and share buybacks to support growth	Debt issuance supports its capital plans.	Intact	No further debt issuance or buybacks for 4 quarters	Debt issuance active ($1.5B notes, $2.5B revolver) vs target RKT issued $1.5B senior notes in June and entered a new $2.5B revolving credit agreement in July 2026. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves to $400 million in Q1 2026	Operating income rose to $400 million in Q1 2026.	Intact	Operating income falls below $168.9 million in 2026-Q1	Operating income: $655M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $400 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 2026655,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. GAAP net income was $297 million in 2026-Q1 and $229 million in 2026-Q2; adjusted net income increased from $422 million to $441 million. Management's focus on profitability shows delivering adjusted earnings growth despite GAAP net income decline. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue reaches about $2.9 billion in Q2 2026	A primary condition in ROCKET COMPANIES INC's published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.9 billion.	Broken	Revenue falls below $2.6 billion in 2026-Q2	Revenue: $2.784B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.9 billion. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 7, 20262,784,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 52401bd7-d6a6-4d59-b6c0-8ea1af5a165b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.79

$0.99 → $0.79 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$11.40B

$12.84B → $11.40B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.99	$12,843,812,260	15 / 10
2026-07-25	$0.99	$12,843,790,260	15 / 10
2026-07-26	$0.99	$12,843,790,260	15 / 10
2026-07-27	$0.99	$12,843,790,260	15 / 10
2026-07-28	$0.99	$12,843,790,260	15 / 10
2026-07-29	$0.96	$12,787,890,260	15 / 10
2026-07-30	$0.98	$12,724,246,281	10 / 8
2026-07-31	$0.96	$12,604,490,260	15 / 10
2026-08-01	$0.98	$12,724,246,281	10 / 8
2026-08-02	$0.96	$12,604,490,260	15 / 10
2026-08-03	$0.98	$12,724,246,281	10 / 8
2026-08-04	$0.96	$12,604,490,260	15 / 10
2026-08-05	$0.98	$12,724,246,281	10 / 8
2026-08-06	$0.96	$12,604,490,260	15 / 10
2026-08-08	$0.94	$12,534,094,900	15 / 11
2026-08-09	$0.90	$12,227,094,900	16 / 11
2026-08-10	$0.90	$12,227,094,900	16 / 11
2026-08-12	$0.87	$12,163,094,900	16 / 11
2026-08-13	$0.98	$12,657,246,281	10 / 8
2026-08-14	$0.98	$12,657,246,281	10 / 8
2026-08-15	$0.98	$12,657,246,281	10 / 8
2026-08-16	$0.98	$12,657,246,281	10 / 8
2026-08-17	$0.98	$12,657,246,281	10 / 8
2026-08-18	$0.98	$12,657,246,281	10 / 8
2026-08-19	$0.98	$12,657,246,281	10 / 8
2026-08-20	$0.89	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-08-21	$0.88	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-08-22	$0.88	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-08-23	$0.88	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-08-24	$0.88	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-08-25	$0.88	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-08-26	$0.88	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-08-27	$0.88	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-08-28	$0.88	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-08-29	$0.88	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-08-30	$0.88	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-08-31	$0.88	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-01	$0.88	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-02	$0.88	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-03	$0.88	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-04	$0.88	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-05	$0.88	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-06	$0.88	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-07	$0.88	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-08	$0.88	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-09	$0.88	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-10	$0.86	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-11	$0.86	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-12	$0.86	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-13	$0.86	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-14	$0.86	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-15	$0.86	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-16	$0.86	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-17	$0.86	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-18	$0.86	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-19	$0.86	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-20	$0.86	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-21	$0.86	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-22	$0.86	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-23	$0.86	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-24	$0.86	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-25	$0.86	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-26	$0.86	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-27	$0.86	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-28	$0.86	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-29	$0.86	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-09-30	$0.86	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-10-01	$0.86	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-10-02	$0.86	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-10-03	$0.86	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-10-04	$0.86	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-10-05	$0.86	$11,984,641,120	10 / 8
2026-10-06	$0.84	$11,878,338,231	10 / 8
2026-10-07	$0.84	$11,878,338,231	10 / 8
2026-10-08	$0.83	$11,667,893,786	10 / 8
2026-10-09	$0.83	$11,667,893,786	10 / 8
2026-10-10	$0.83	$11,667,893,786	10 / 8
2026-10-11	$0.83	$11,667,893,786	10 / 8
2026-10-12	$0.83	$11,667,893,786	10 / 8
2026-10-13	$0.80	$11,486,105,899	10 / 8
2026-10-14	$0.80	$11,486,105,899	10 / 8
2026-10-15	$0.79	$11,398,105,899	10 / 8
2026-10-16	$0.79	$11,398,105,899	10 / 8
2026-10-17	$0.79	$11,398,105,899	10 / 8
2026-10-18	$0.79	$11,398,105,899	10 / 8
2026-10-19	$0.79	$11,398,105,899	10 / 8
2026-10-20	$0.79	$11,398,105,899	10 / 8
2026-10-21	$0.79	$11,398,105,899	10 / 8
2026-10-22	$0.79	$11,398,105,899	10 / 8
2026-10-23	$0.79	$11,398,105,899	10 / 8
2026-10-24	$0.79	$11,398,105,899	10 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	8
2026-06-01	9	8
2026-07-01	10	8
2026-08-01	10	8
2026-09-01	10	8
2026-10-01	10	7

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 12 · prior Jul 16

$19.00 → $16.00-15.8%

Wells FargoOct 6 · prior Apr 9

$17.00 → $13.00-23.5%

$0$10.45$20.90

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Operating income improves to $400 million in Q1 2026Operating income: $655M
Revenue reaches about $2.9 billion in Q2 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-55.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ROCKET COMPANIES INC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

RKT is a cyclical mortgage business whose results depend on mortgage activity and the rate environment. The multi-year view is mixed: management is expanding mortgage volume and maintaining liquidity, but recent financial performance remains weak and execution quality is fragile.

What's priced into ROCKET COMPANIES INC

RKT is expensive versus peers, with a 1.1 premium measure, and the expectations gap is negative. The valuation evidence says the pricing is justified rather than driven by unusually concentrated fragility, but it leaves limited room for weaker execution.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue eased from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2026, and GAAP net income also declined, while adjusted net income increased. Mortgage market share improved, liquidity reached $11.2 billion, and management’s stated priorities are on track, though the sector backdrop is a headwind and recent performance is below its industry cohort.

What ROCKET COMPANIES INC hinges on

The near-term case weakens if management cuts guidance on the next call, a newly flagged risk, or if rate cuts weigh on financial-sector performance. Sector momentum could help if PFSI, UWMC, and WD continue to report strong earnings and raise guidance; the multi-year thesis also hinges on sustained mortgage-volume growth and better profitability.