Reading PTGX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PTGX free→Reading PTGX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PTGX free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect growth. Compared with sector peers, PTGX trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 415% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $112.46. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $112, PTGX's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 56× p/s (5.9× the 9× p/s peer median, and 2.1× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~369% near-term growth vs our ~-8% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $24 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $110–$121. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 369% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.02x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.41 → $1.77 (+25.3% / 30d). 4 raised, 2 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 92% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$178.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$359.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,638.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Increasing royalty revenue shows strong product uptake. It also indicates good financial health.
Confirms:Quarterly report shows royalty revenue increasing by more than 10% year over year.
Disproves:Royalty revenue declines or fails to grow year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PTGX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. reported its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release titled “Protagonist Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Provides Corporate Update” is furnished pursuant to
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$110.00 – $121.00 (median $121.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-06
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PTGX Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to advance the robust R&D pipeline to drive future growth.
Focus on achieving key regulatory and commercial milestones to enhance value.
Focus on generating royalties from ICOTYDE and rusfertide to drive revenue.
Why it matters: Completing this shows progress in Protagonist's research and future work.
Confirms:Completion of Phase 1 study for PN-881 is announced.
Disproves:Phase 1 study for PN-881 is delayed beyond mid-2026.
Why it matters: Progress in the R&D pipeline is key for Protagonist's future growth and value.
Confirms:A new clinical trial is announced. Positive data comes from an ongoing study.
Disproves:No updates or delays in the R&D pipeline for the next quarter.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops below the median, it signals a potential slowdown in the sector.
Confirms:Q1 2026 revenue growth reported below the median growth rate for the sector.
Disproves:Q1 2026 revenue growth remains above the median growth rate for the sector.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026, Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release titled “Protagonist Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results and Provides Corporate Update” is furnished pursuant to