Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. (PTGX)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$138.43-0.79%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	35.27M
EPS	—	-0.321
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	549.62M
EPS	—	4.694
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	204.7M
EPS	—	-0.389

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Sustain positive earnings per share growth	Earnings per share beat estimates by 110% last quarter.	Intact	EPS falls below $2.24 in next quarter	Diluted EPS: $2.29 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $2.24 next quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 20262.29 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3e48d67b-062d-40fc-90a4-458b3911a3e1. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain high revenue growth rate	A supporting condition in Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 68% YoY revenue growth next year.	Improving	revenue growth falls below 68% in FY2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Generate royalties from ICOTYDE and rusfertide to drive revenue	Royalties from ICOTYDE and rusfertide are driving revenue from $7.4M to $56.4M in one quarter.	Intact	royalty revenue falls below $7.4M in any future quarter	Revenue: $213.475M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $56.4M revenue from royalties next quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 2026213,475,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3e48d67b-062d-40fc-90a4-458b3911a3e1. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.39

$-0.46 → $-0.39 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.20B

$0.18B → $0.20B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.46	$179,784,573	7 / 8
2026-07-25	$-0.19	$184,566,390	11 / 11
2026-07-26	$-0.19	$184,566,390	11 / 11
2026-07-27	$-0.19	$184,566,390	11 / 11
2026-07-28	$-0.19	$184,566,390	11 / 11
2026-07-29	$-0.50	$176,220,936	7 / 8
2026-07-30	$-0.50	$176,220,936	7 / 8
2026-07-31	$-0.50	$176,220,936	7 / 8
2026-08-01	$-0.50	$176,220,936	7 / 8
2026-08-02	$-0.19	$184,566,390	11 / 11
2026-08-03	$-0.50	$176,220,936	7 / 8
2026-08-04	$-0.50	$176,220,936	7 / 8
2026-08-05	$-0.50	$176,220,936	7 / 8
2026-08-06	$-0.50	$176,220,936	7 / 8
2026-08-07	$-0.34	$188,666,192	7 / 8
2026-08-08	$0.13	$201,721,130	9 / 11
2026-08-09	$-0.34	$188,666,192	7 / 8
2026-08-10	$-0.21	$190,808,620	11 / 12
2026-08-12	$-0.14	$200,260,240	12 / 12
2026-08-13	$-0.34	$188,666,192	7 / 8
2026-08-14	$-0.34	$188,666,192	7 / 8
2026-08-15	$-0.34	$188,666,192	7 / 8
2026-08-16	$-0.34	$188,666,192	7 / 8
2026-08-17	$-0.34	$188,666,192	7 / 8
2026-08-18	$-0.34	$188,666,192	7 / 8
2026-08-19	$-0.34	$188,666,192	7 / 8
2026-08-20	$-0.39	$191,777,680	8 / 9
2026-08-21	$-0.39	$191,777,680	8 / 9
2026-08-22	$-0.39	$191,777,680	8 / 9
2026-08-23	$-0.39	$191,777,680	8 / 9
2026-08-24	$-0.39	$191,777,680	8 / 9
2026-08-25	$-0.39	$191,777,680	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$-0.39	$191,777,680	8 / 9
2026-08-27	$-0.39	$191,777,680	8 / 9
2026-08-28	$-0.39	$191,777,680	8 / 9
2026-08-29	$-0.39	$191,777,680	8 / 9
2026-08-30	$-0.39	$192,185,373	8 / 9
2026-08-31	$-0.39	$192,185,373	8 / 9
2026-09-01	$-0.38	$192,185,373	8 / 9
2026-09-02	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-09-03	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-09-04	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-09-05	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-09-06	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-09-07	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-09-08	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-09-09	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-09-10	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-09-11	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-09-12	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-09-13	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-09-14	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-09-15	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-09-16	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-09-17	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-09-18	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-09-19	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-09-20	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-09-21	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-09-22	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-09-23	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-09-24	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-09-25	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-09-26	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-09-27	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-09-28	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-09-29	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-09-30	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-10-01	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-10-02	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-10-03	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-10-04	$-0.49	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-10-05	$-0.43	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-10-06	$-0.43	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-10-07	$-0.43	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-10-08	$-0.43	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-10-09	$-0.43	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-10-10	$-0.43	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-10-11	$-0.43	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-10-12	$-0.43	$192,726,219	8 / 9
2026-10-13	$-0.37	$200,818,430	8 / 9
2026-10-14	$-0.43	$200,818,430	9 / 9
2026-10-15	$-0.43	$200,818,430	9 / 9
2026-10-16	$-0.43	$200,818,430	9 / 9
2026-10-17	$-0.43	$200,818,430	9 / 9
2026-10-18	$-0.44	$200,818,430	9 / 9
2026-10-19	$-0.44	$200,818,430	9 / 9
2026-10-20	$-0.44	$200,818,430	9 / 9
2026-10-21	$-0.44	$200,818,430	9 / 9
2026-10-22	$-0.39	$204,704,144	9 / 9
2026-10-23	$-0.39	$204,704,144	9 / 9
2026-10-24	$-0.39	$204,704,144	9 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	12	1
2026-06-01	12	1
2026-07-01	12	1
2026-08-01	13	1
2026-09-01	13	0
2026-10-01	14	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 12

$184.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$101.20$202.40

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Sustain positive earnings per share growthDiluted EPS: $2.29 per share
Maintain high revenue growth rateDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Generate royalties from ICOTYDE and rusfertide to drive revenueRevenue: $213.475M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-18.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PTGX is a clinical-stage biotech with pipeline and partnered-asset optionality, meaning future value depends on development and commercial milestones. The long-term thesis is intact, though earnings quality is fragile and the evidence confidence is medium.

What's priced into Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc.

The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a premium of 3.84 and an expectations gap of 0.59; model confidence is low. Valuation rose from 38.9 to 49.0, while the priced-in assessment says weak execution quality is recognized, but not a broader combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent financial performance is strong, with earnings beats in May and August 2026, and collaboration revenue rose sharply in Q2 from milestone and opt-out payments. Management has continued pipeline work, including advancing PN-881 toward a Phase 2b program expected in early 2027, but the next earnings report carries risk given erratic surprises and a high-miss-rate industry.

What Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. hinges on

The thesis depends on clinical programs progressing and partnered assets delivering regulatory and commercial milestones, including the rusfertide review and ICOTYDE sales. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback, while continued strength among healthcare bellwethers could support sector momentum; weakening jobs data could add pressure to cyclical and healthcare names.