Reading PROP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PROP free→Reading PROP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PROP free→NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with PROP trading below typical compared to sector peers. The valuation grid is empty, so there are no valuation insights available. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $0.71. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $0.78 PROP trades at 1× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $7.23 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 89% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated weak grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.52x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=329).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.14 → $0.03 (-78.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$416.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$888.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,316.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
The valuation dimension changed. It fell from "inexpensive" to "None." Risk remains high. Earnings quality is loss-making. Management is volatile. The sector backdrop is a headwind.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Achieving this EBITDA range is crucial for Prairie's financial health and growth outlook.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA was between $240M and $260M in quarterly results.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA was below $240M or above $260M.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PROP yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Second Amendment to Amended & Restated Credit Agreement On June 10, 2026, Prairie Operating Co. (the “Company” or “Prairie”) entered into a Second Amendment to Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Amendment”) with Citibank, N.A., as administrative agent, and the other financial institutions party thereto, which amends the Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of March 26, 2025 (as amended by that certain First Amendment to Amended a…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PROP Prairie Operating Co. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 8 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
COP ConocoPhillips | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
EOG EOG Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | full | moderate |
OXY Occidental Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FANG Diamondback Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Prairie Operating Co. aims to maintain its capital expenditures within the $200M-$220M range for the fiscal year 2026.
Prairie Operating Co. targets an adjusted EBITDA range of $240M-$260M for the fiscal year 2026.
Prairie Operating Co. aims to increase its average daily production to between 25,500 and 27,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2026.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. The information set forth under
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as may be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 22, 2026, Gizman I. Abbas provided the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Prairie Operating Co. (the “Company”) with notice of his resignation as a member of the Board, effective May 15, 2026. Mr. Abbas’s resignation was not the result of any disagreement with the Company or the Board on any matter relating to the Company’s operations, po…