Reading PAHC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PAHC free→Reading PAHC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PAHC free→NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash flow. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance from PAHC and performance trends from sector bellwethers like TEVA and ZTS. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $31.87. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $32 PAHC trades at 11× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $36 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 11% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 19%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.69x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated fragile grew net income 40% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.73 → $0.73 (-0.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 20% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$211.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$451.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,231.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The upcoming earnings report will show if Phibro can maintain its revenue growth trend.
Confirms:Q4 net sales exceed $1.46 billion, confirming growth trends.
Disproves:Q4 net sales drop below $1.46 billion. This shows possible revenue problems.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Price target cut indicates potential revenue growth issues.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On May 6, 2026, Phibro Animal Health Corporation issued a press release announcing its operating results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026 and its financial guidance for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in this report, including the exhibit attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” f…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Pharmaceuticals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PAHC Phibro Animal Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | elevated |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | low |
MRK Merck & Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFE Pfizer | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | low |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Improve operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Continue to provide a stable quarterly dividend of $0.12 per share.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend signals financial health and commitment to shareholders. A cut could raise concerns.
Confirms:The company declares a quarterly cash dividend of $0.12 per share.
Disproves:The company plans to cut the quarterly dividend.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income means better cost control and profit. This can help investors.
Confirms:Operating income grew more than 10% from last year.
Disproves:Operating income grew less than 10% from last year.
Why it matters: A drop below 10% would signal a slowdown in revenue growth for Phibro Animal Health. This could impact investor confidence.
Confirms:Q4 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q4 revenue growth remains at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: The dividend shows Phibro's promise to give value to shareholders. Changes may show financial health.
Confirms one read:Phibro pays the declared dividend of $0.12 per share on June 24, 2026.
Confirms the other:Phibro cuts or stops the dividend payment. This shows they may have financial trouble.
Why it matters: This regulation could change how Phibro sells certain products in Brazil. It may affect sales and compliance costs.
Confirms:Phibro sees a big drop in sales of certain antimicrobials in Brazil after the rule starts.
Disproves:Sales of antimicrobials in Brazil remain steady or go up. This happens even with the new rule.
ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT. On April 28, 2026, Phibro Animal Health Corporation (the “Company”) entered into Amendment No. 1 to its Credit Agreement (“Amendment No. 1”) with Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A., New York Branch, as administrative agent, collateral agent and L/C issuer, and each lender from time to time party thereto, which amends the Credit Agreement, dated as of July 3, 2024, among the Company, Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A., New York Branch, as administrative agent, colla…
OTHER EVENTS On May 5, 2026, Phibro Animal Health Corporation issued a press release announcing the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend of $0.12 per share on its Class A common stock and Class B common stock, payable on June 24, 2026, to stockholders of record at the close of business on June 3, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing the dividend is filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
CREATION OF A DIRECT FINANCIAL OBLIGATION OR AN OBLIGATION UNDER AN OFF-BALANCE SHEET ARRANGEMENT OF A REGISTRANT. As discussed in
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAN OFFICERS. (a) On April 13, 2026, Ms. Joyce J. Lee, a member of the Board of the Directors (the “Board”) of Phibro Animal Health Corporation (the “Company”), informed the Company that she intends to resign from her position as Director of the Company effective April 15, 2026. Ms. Lee was a Class II Director of the Company. Ms. Lee’s resignation was not the res…