Reading ORGO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ORGO free→Reading ORGO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ORGO free→NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is elevated. Earnings quality is robust, while management's recent track record has been neutral. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening, as recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of major Healthcare companies. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.41. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.41 ORGO trades at 13× p/e, in line with its 13× p/e peer median. Our $2.34 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 3% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 11.43x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.09 → $-0.35 (-288.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 12.8% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$198.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$579.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,575.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
As of June 15, 2026, the valuation dimension changed and rose, with the valuation label changing from "fair" to "full." Risk also rose, indicating an elevated level of risk. The sector backdrop fell, suggesting a headwind for the company.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The health care sector is maturing. If revenue growth picks up, it could benefit Organogenesis.
Confirms:Health care sector revenue growth speeds up to 10% or more.
Disproves:Health care sector revenue growth continues to slow below current levels.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ORGO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, the Company announced via press release its results for the fiscal first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is hereby furnished to the Commission and incorporated herein by reference as Exhibit 99.1. The information in the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchang…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Pharmaceuticals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ORGO Organogenesis Holdings, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | full | elevated |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | expensive | low |
MRK Merck & Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFE Pfizer | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | low |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company lowered its revenue guidance for 2026 to between $270 million and $310 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance for 2026 was lowered from $350-$420 million to $270-$310 million. This reflects a significant downward revision, indicating challenges in meeting previous growth expectations.
“The company now expects total net revenue between $270.0 million and $310.0 million for 2026.”
“The company expects total net revenue between $350.0 million and $420.0 million for 2026.”
The company is focusing on improving operating income after a significant decline in 2026-Q1.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Operating income declined from $63.3 million in 2025-Q4 to -$68.9 million in 2026-Q1, indicating a significant deterioration in operational efficiency. The company is focusing on reversing this trend.
The company is addressing the decline in net income, which turned negative in 2026-Q1.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Net income declined from $43.7 million in 2025-Q4 to -$53.2 million in 2026-Q1, highlighting a significant financial challenge. The company is addressing this decline to improve financial stability.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 18, 2026, the board of directors of Organogenesis Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Patrick McGuire, 40, to serve as Chief Accounting Officer and principal accounting officer of the Company, effective immediately. Patrick McGuire previously served as the Company’s Vice President, Corporate Controller since September 2023. Prior to…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, the Company announced via press release its results for the fiscal fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release is hereby furnished to the Commission and incorporated herein by reference as Exhibit 99.1. The information in the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On December 22, 2025, Organogenesis Inc. (“Organogenesis”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Organogenesis Holdings Inc. (the “Company”), entered into a First Amendment to Lease with 65 Dan Road SPE, LLC, as landlord, relating to the premises located at 65 Dan Road, Canton, Massachusetts (the “65 Dan Road Amendment”), and a separate First Amendment to Lease with Dan Road Associates, LLC, as landlord, relating to the premises located at 150 Dan Road, Can…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 6, 2025, the Company announced via press release its results for the fiscal third quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release is hereby furnished to the Commission and incorporated herein by reference as Exhibit 99.1. The information in the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the…
“Operating income declined to -$68.9 million in 2026-Q1 from $63.3 million in 2025-Q4.”
“Net income turned negative at -$53.2 million in 2026-Q1 from $43.7 million in 2025-Q4.”