Reading ODC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady, with capital-friendly moves. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 21% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The company is not currently profitable, so the valuation leans on sales- and cash-based methods. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $92.73. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
We can't anchor a clean multiple for ODC right now, so treat our $77 fair value as low-confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 22% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.41x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1297).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$108.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$308.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,273.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows the company is doing well and wants to share cash.
Confirms:A press release announcing an increase in the quarterly dividend above $0.225 per share.
Disproves:No increase in the quarterly dividend or a cut in the dividend amount.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ODC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 8, 2026 , Oil-Dri Corporation of America (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for its third quarter ended April 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1, and the information contained therein is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of th…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2019-Q3, 2020-Q1, 2020-Q2, 2020-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Specialty Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ODC Oil-Dri Corp. of America | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | full | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | full | moderate |
ECL Ecolab | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PPG PPG Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LYB LyondellBasell | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | — | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated stable grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=210).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The Board authorized the repurchase of up to 500,000 shares of Common Stock.
The Board declared quarterly cash dividends of $0.225 per share of Common Stock.
Why it matters: The buyback program shows that management wants to give value to shareholders.
Confirms:A press release confirming the repurchase of at least 250,000 shares within the next quarter.
Disproves:No news on the buyback program or delays in share repurchase updates.
Why it matters: Growth in revenue in the materials sector may show a recovery and help ODC.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Other Events. At its regular meeting on June 3, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company (the “Board”) declared quarterly cash dividends of $0.225 per share of Common Stock, and $0.168 per share of Class B Stock. The dividends will be payable on August 21, 2026 to stockholders of record at the close of business on August 7, 2026. At its June 3, 2026 meeting, the Board also authorized the repurchase of up to 500,000 shares of Common Stock. These shares are in addition to the 172,261 shares…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) Second Amendment to the 2005 Deferred Compensation Plan On April 3, 2026, the Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors (the “Compensation Committee”) of Oil-Dri Corporation of America (the “Company”) approved the second amendment (the “Second Amendment”) to the Oil-Dri Corporation of America 2005 Deferred Compensation Plan (the “Deferre…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 11, 2026 , Oil-Dri Corporation of America (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for its second quarter ended January 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1, and the information contained therein is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On December 8, 2025 , Oil-Dri Corporation of America (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for its first quarter ended October 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1, and the information contained therein is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18…