Reading NGVT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NGVT free→Reading NGVT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NGVT free→NYSEMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 26% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. The company is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $71.77. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $72 NGVT trades at 15× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $97 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 25% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted -2.38x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.49 → $1.38 (-7.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$146.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$338.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,394.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how Ingevity is doing financially. It will help us understand future results.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows revenue growth and better profit numbers.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows falling revenue or bigger losses.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NGVT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On May 6, 2026 , Ingevity Corporation ("Ingevity") announced its preliminary financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026 which are attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. Please refer to our website for additional information regarding Ingevity. Periodically we may provide other information on the investor relations page of our website. Interested parties are encouraged to visit Ingevity's website to view such…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Specialty Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NGVT Ingevity, Corp. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | full | moderate |
ECL Ecolab | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PPG PPG Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LYB LyondellBasell | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | — | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Ingevity aims to achieve net sales between $1.05 billion and $1.15 billion for the full year 2026.
Ingevity aims to achieve adjusted EBITDA between $370 million and $395 million for the full year 2026.
Ingevity aims to achieve adjusted EPS between $4.70 and $5.20 for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: Q2 results will show if Ingevity is on track to meet its $1.05B to $1.15B revenue goal for 2026.
Confirms:Q2 revenue reported above $265M, which supports the annual revenue target.
Disproves:Q2 revenue was below $240M. This raises doubts about reaching the annual target.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth would show a positive change in the materials sector. This might mean more demand for Ingevity's products.
Confirms:Q1 revenue growth reported above 1% year over year.
Disproves:Q1 revenue growth remains at or below 1% year over year.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA results will show progress toward the $370M to $395M target for 2026.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA was above $90M for Q2. This shows good progress.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA was below $80M for Q2. This suggests challenges in meeting the annual target.
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS. On April 29, 2026, Ingevity Corporation (the “Company”) held its annual meeting of stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”). At the Annual Meeting, upon the recommendation of the Company’s Board of Directors, the Company’s stockholders approved the Amendment to the Ingevity Corporation 2025 Omnibus Incentive Plan (the “Amendment”). The Amendment increas…
ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT On March 26, 2026 (the “ Closing Date ”), Ingevity Corporation (the “ Company ”), Ingevity Holdings SRL (“ Holdings ”), Ingevity UK Ltd (the “ UK Borrower ”), the other loan parties party thereto, the lenders party thereto, the issuing banks party thereto and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent (the “ Administrative Agent ”), collateral agent and swingline lender, entered into that certain Second Amendment and Restatement Agreement (th…
Creation of a direct financial obligation or an obligation under an off-balance sheet arrangement of a registrant The information in
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On February 25, 2026 , Ingevity Corporation ("Ingevity") announced its preliminary financial results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2025, which are attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. Please refer to our website for additional information regarding Ingevity. Periodically we may provide other information on the investor relations page of our website. Interested parties are encouraged to visit Ingevity's…