Ingevity, Corp. (NGVT)

NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-23

$69.64-0.29%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Ingevity, Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	240.48M
EPS	—	0.9
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.11B
EPS	$5–$5.45non-GAAP	5.353
Free cash flow	$220M–$245M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.13B
EPS	—	6.037

What the Thesis Depends On

5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EPS between $4.70 and $5.20 in 2026	The company improves earnings per share to about $4.7-$5.2.	Intact	Adjusted EPS falls below $4.70 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management raised adjusted EPS guidance from $4.70-$5.20 in 2026-Q1 to $5.00-$5.45 in 2026-Q2. Diluted adjusted EPS was $1.74 in 2026-Q2, up from $1.22 year-over-year, showing progress toward the full-year target. The trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Net leverage ratio reduced to 2.0-2.5x in 2026	A supporting condition in Ingevity, Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is <= 2.5x net leverage.	Intact	Net leverage remains above 2.5x at end of FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net leverage improved from 3.0 times in 2025-Q2 to 2.5 times in 2026-Q2. Management plans to use free cash flow, which is guided between $220 million and $245 million for 2026, to reduce leverage further to the 2.0-2.5x target range. The trajectory shows delivering progress on leverage reduction. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Complete divestitures of non-core businesses	A supporting condition in Ingevity, Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is Divestiture proceeds of ~$158 million completed by mid-2026.	Intact	Divestitures not completed or reversed by mid-2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management completed divestitures of Road Markings in April 2026 and Industrial Specialties in January 2026, aligning the portfolio with core capabilities. These actions support the strategic focus and are reflected in adjusted revenue and EBITDA guidance excluding divested lines. The trajectory shows delivering on portfolio sharpening. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Adjusted EBITDA between $370M and $395M in 2026	Profit stays strong with adjusted EBITDA around $370 million.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $370 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Full year 2026 revenue near $1.05B to $1.15B	A primary condition in Ingevity, Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.05 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.05 billion in FY26	Revenue: $314.1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.05 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026314,100,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4afaebaa-4707-4a09-9a40-2df6e0898118. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management raised full-year 2026 net sales guidance from $1.1-$1.2 billion in 2025-Q4 to $1.05-$1.15 billion in 2026-Q1 and reaffirmed it in 2026-Q2 after divesting Road Markings. Revenue in 2026-Q2 was $314.1 million, down 5% year-over-year due to divestiture but up 5% excluding it. The trajectory shows management delivering on this revenue guidance with adjustments for portfolio changes. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	1
2026-06-01	3	1
2026-07-01	3	1
2026-08-01	3	1
2026-09-01	3	0
2026-10-01	3	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EPS between $4.70 and $5.20 in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Net leverage ratio reduced to 2.0-2.5x in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Complete divestitures of non-core businessesDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Adjusted EBITDA between $370M and $395M in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Full year 2026 revenue near $1.05B to $1.15BRevenue: $314.1M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-19.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Ingevity, Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is an execution-focused materials business with improving recent results, rather than a clear-cut low-valuation case. The multi-year view is intact, but momentum has eased and the sector backdrop remains a headwind.

What's priced into Ingevity, Corp.

The evidence labels NGVT as stretched, despite also indicating that it is cheap versus peers, so the valuation picture is mixed. The expectations gap is 0.22, but the snapshot does not define its scale; it also shows low fragility, so it does not point to a concentrated pricing risk.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management is on track with its 2026 adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS goals, and it raised both ranges in the second quarter. Revenue fell year over year due to the Road Markings divestiture, but rose excluding it; recent momentum has weakened, and peer earnings misses plus erratic surprises remain risks.

What Ingevity, Corp. hinges on

The central test is whether NGVT sustains delivery against its raised guidance without later cutting it, which could damage management credibility. Sector conditions also matter: continued strength from LIN, SHW, and ECL would support the Materials backdrop, while weaker results or guidance from them could remove that support.