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Noble Corporation (NE)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this month
$43.52-3.62%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, NE is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 285% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. Rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Watch sector bellwethers like VAL, PTEN, and HP for early signals. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Drilling
- Market cap
- $7.49B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1994-03-30
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $43.52. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$11.31consensus
Range $5.56 – $13.34
vs price: +285% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$47.38consensus
Range $29.02 – $65.73
vs price: -8% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $45, NE's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 6× p/s (3.2× the 2× p/s peer median, and 1.2× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~306% near-term growth vs our ~-8% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $11 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $41–$59. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
5.8x
peer 1.8x · own history 4.9x
Premium
3.2x peer
1.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
306%
our forecast -8%
Our fair value
$11.12
range $5.54 – $14.21
Analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 306% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated weak grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
5th pctl · Energy
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -0.23x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=329).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearish1 positive, 2 negative material events / 30dfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.24 → $0.24 (-1.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 7 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 30% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
1 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: energy is in mature, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$144.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$389.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,997.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 4d
Watch for the completion of the $800 million senior notes offering
Why it matters: This offering is important for paying off high-interest debt. Completing it can help finances.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The offering will close around June 11, 2026. The money will be used to pay debt.
Disproves:The offering fails to close or proceeds are not used as planned.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2024-07-081y agoNASDAQ Stock Market
Advances: Maintain contract backlog and secure new contracts
New contract secures backlog, aligns with growth objective.
Strongly reinforcesConfirmed
This sector is also watching
- Watch for energy revenue growth to pick up above 3% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like VAL, PTEN, and HP keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting NE and other Energy names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit NE and other Energy names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
- If NE beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a solid beat of +24% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like VAL, PTEN, and HP start missing or guiding lower, the Energy tailwind helping NE and other Energy names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits NE and other Energy names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-125d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Indenture and the 2034 Notes On June 11, 2026, Noble Finance II LLC (the “Issuer”), a Delaware corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of Noble Corporation plc, a public limited company formed under the laws of England and Wales (“Parent”), certain of the Issuer’s subsidiaries (the “Guarantors”) and HSBC Bank USA, National Association, as trustee (the “Trustee”), entered into an indenture (the “Indenture”), pursuant to which the Issuer issued $800,0…
Capital allocationpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.