Reading MSAI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MSAI free→Reading MSAI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MSAI free→NASDAQInformation TechnologyElectronic ComponentsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality is not assessable since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Compared with sector peers, MSAI trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 44% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.79. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $5.75 MSAI trades at 1× p/s, below its 4× p/s peer median. Our $25 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 77% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.67x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=793).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $-1.20. 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$372.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,371.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $9,405.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below the median, it signals a slowdown in the sector. This could hurt investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth drops below the median growth rate for the sector.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth stays above the median growth rate for the sector.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MSAI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liabilities under that section and is not incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date hereof, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electronic Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MSAI MultiSensor AI Holdings Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 7 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
APH Amphenol | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | full | moderate |
GLW Corning Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
COHR Coherent Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LFUS Littelfuse | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: The FOMC decisions can impact market conditions. This could affect MultiSensor AI's growth outlook.
Confirms one read:Sector performance gets much better after the FOMC meeting on June 17.
Confirms the other:Sector performance declines after the FOMC meeting on June 17.
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. As previously disclosed, on October 24, 2025, MultiSensor AI Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a securities purchase agreement with certain investors (collectively, the “Investors”), pursuant to which the Company sold to the Investors shares of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Common Stock”), and warrants (the “Warrants”) to purchase up to an aggregate of 68,459,652 shares of Common Stock at an exercise price of $…
of Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liabilities under that section and is not incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date hereof, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such fili…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. At the Market Sales Agreement On March 13, 2026, MultiSensor AI Holdings, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”) entered into an at market issuance sales agreement (the “Sales Agreement”) with Roth Capital Partners, LLC and H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC, as sales agents or principals (the “Agents”), under which the Company may offer and sell shares of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.0001 per share, having an aggregate market value of up…
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. Equity Line of Credit As previously disclosed, on April 16, 2024, MultiSensor AI Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Common Stock Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with B. Riley Principal Capital II, LLC (“B. Riley Principal Capital II”) providing the Company with the option to sell B. Riley Principal Capital II up to $25.0 million of shares of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Common Stock”), su…