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Ouster, Inc. (OUST)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyElectronic ComponentsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$42.73-5.42%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is high, and compared with sector peers, it is below typical. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, which may support performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 13% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Electronic Components
- Market cap
- $2.53B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2020-08-04
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $42.73. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$41.88consensus
Range $26.18 – $57.58
vs price: +2% above
Method agreement — · 2 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$117.62consensus
Range $73.65 – $161.58
vs price: -64% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $43, OUST's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 13× p/s (3.5× the 4× p/s peer median). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $49 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $40–$75. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
12.9x
peer 3.7x · own history —
Premium
3.5x peer
Growth the price needs
-13%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$49.23
range $30.69 – $67.77
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 13% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
34th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 0.76x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutral6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
NeutralEPS revised -23.6% / 30d, n=5for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.11 → $-0.14 (-23.6% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 50.7% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): tailwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$389.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$933.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,515.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for sector revenue growth dropping below median
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops, it may impact Ouster's performance. It could signal a broader slowdown.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below its median.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median.
Sector context
as of 2026-06-16
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-0215d agoYahoo! Finance
LiDAR expansion aligns with revenue growth objectives.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for OUST and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like APH, GLW, and TEL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting OUST and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If OUST raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If OUST cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like APH, GLW, and TEL start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping OUST and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-051mo agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.8 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.