Reading APH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track APH free→Reading APH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track APH free→NYSEInformation TechnologyElectronic ComponentsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and the company has a capital-unfriendly stance. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 32% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on guidance changes, as a cut could negatively impact the stock, while a raise could provide a momentum boost.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $158.70. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $159 the market pays 42× p/e — above the 30× p/e peer median but in line with its own 47× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $120 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $165–$215. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 33% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 39%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.28x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.17 → $1.17 (+0.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 42.6% above current price.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$215.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$372.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,819.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Hitting this EPS would show strong profits. It would help management's growth goals.
Confirms:Q2 2026 adjusted EPS reported at $1.14 or higher.
Disproves:Q2 2026 adjusted EPS reported below $1.14.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for APH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 12, 2026, Amphenol Corporation (the “Company”) issued and sold €600,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 3.375% Senior Notes due 2029 (the “2029 Notes”) and €500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 3.875% Senior Notes due 2034 (the “2034 Notes” and, together with the 2029 Notes, the “Notes”), pursuant to the Company’s Registration Statement on Form S-3 (No. 333-293923) (the “Registration Statement”), including t…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$165.00 – $215.00 (median $179.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-06-08
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electronic Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
APH Amphenol | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | full | moderate |
GLW Corning Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
COHR Coherent Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LFUS Littelfuse | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | full | moderate |
VSH Vishay Intertechnology | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | fair | elevated |
18 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=793).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 50% of the last 8 guided quarters · -11.9% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on integrating the Connectivity and Cable Solutions business acquired from CommScope.
Aim to achieve sales growth in the second quarter of 2026.
Target to achieve EPS in the range of $1.14 to $1.16 for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Sales at this level would show strong growth. It would also support management's view.
Confirms:Q2 2026 sales reported at $8.2 billion or higher.
Disproves:Q2 2026 sales reported below $8.1 billion.
Why it matters: Recent debt issuance will show how it affects Amphenol's balance sheet. This will show stability.
Confirms:Debt ratios improve or remain stable post-issuance.
Disproves:Debt ratios get worse after the recent debt issuances.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 5, 2026, Amphenol Corporation (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) by and among the Company and Barclays Bank PLC, Citigroup Global Markets Limited, Commerzbank Aktiengesellschaft, HSBC Bank plc, BNP PARIBAS, J.P. Morgan Securities plc, Mizuho International plc, Standard Chartered Bank, ING Bank N.V., Belgian Branch and Siebert Williams Shank & Co., LLC, relating to the offer and sale of €600 m…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Amphenol Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release setting forth the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. This Current Report on Form 8-K may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and the provisions of Section 2…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation Under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The foregoing terms and conditions of the Indenture, the Officers’ Certificate, the 2029 Notes and the 2034 Notes described in
Other Events. On May 5, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the pricing of the Notes Offering, which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein.