Reading LPTH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LPTH free→Reading LPTH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LPTH free→NASDAQInformation TechnologyElectronic ComponentsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $14.33. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $14, LPTH's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 14× p/s (3.9× the 4× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~-6% near-term growth vs our ~68% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $15 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 6% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 68%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.33x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.01 → $0.00 (-100.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$489.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,120.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,052.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A high order backlog shows strong demand and supports future revenue growth.
Confirms:Order backlog remains above $10 million in Q2.
Disproves:Order backlog drops below $5 million in Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LPTH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 1, 2026, LightPath Technologies, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), entered into a securities purchase agreement (the “Securities Purchase Agreement”) with North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP (the “Selling Stockholder”) and certain institutional investors for the purchase and sale of an aggregate of 7,142,800 shares of the Company’s Class A Common Stock, par value $0.01 per share (the “Class A Common Stock”), of which 3,5…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electronic Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LPTH LightPath Technologies Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | fair | elevated |
APH Amphenol | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | full | moderate |
GLW Corning Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
COHR Coherent Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LFUS Littelfuse | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue executing the vertically integrated strategy to drive revenue growth.
Focus on maintaining a high order backlog to support future revenue growth.
Engage in capital allocation strategies, including debt issuance, to support growth initiatives.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, LightPath Technologies, Inc. issued a press release announcing the results for its fiscal 2026 third quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 11, 2026, LightPath Technologies, Inc. issued a press release announcing the results for its fiscal 2026 second quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Press Release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. The information included in
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Asset Purchase Agreement On January 20, 2026, LightPath Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an Asset Purchase Agreement (the “Asset Purchase Agreement”), by and among the Company, Amorphous Materials, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company (“Buyer”), Amorphous Materials, Inc., a Texas corporation (“Seller”) and other parties thereto, pursuant to which, subject to the terms and conditions set…