Reading LYTS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LYTS free→Reading LYTS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LYTS free→NASDAQInformation TechnologyElectronic ComponentsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is mixed. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, and the company has a capital-unfriendly stance. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $24.95. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $25 LYTS trades at 26× p/e, below its 29× p/e peer median. Our $30 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 15% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.76x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.37 → $0.36 (-2.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 27.9% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$162.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$334.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,741.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Key economic reports will impact market sentiment and LSI's outlook. Strong data could support growth.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows stronger than expected growth.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows weaker than expected growth.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LYTS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
above. A copy of the presentation, which is available at www.lsicorp.com, related to this conference call is attached as Exhibit 99.2 to this report and is incorporated by reference herein. LSI’s presentation discloses certain financial results both in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”) and on a non-GAAP basis with adjustments for certain items. LSI’s management believes that presentation of these non-GAAP financial measures and their related reconciliations are…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electronic Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LYTS LSI Industries, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | fair | elevated |
APH Amphenol | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | full | moderate |
GLW Corning Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
COHR Coherent Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LFUS Littelfuse | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | full | moderate |
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=793).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on year-over-year revenue growth in the Lighting segment and resumption of growth in Display Solutions.
Complete the acquisition of Royston to enhance strategic capabilities.
Aim to return to positive cash flow following investments impacting free cash generation.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a weakening trend in the sector. This could affect LSI's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below its historical median.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is still higher than its usual level.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. As previously disclosed, on February 20, 2026, LSI entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) with Royston and Rhino Acquisition Company, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company (the “ Merger Sub ”), pursuant to which LSI agreed to acquire Royston in a reverse triangular merger, resulting in Royston becoming a wholly-owned subsidiary of LSI (the “ Merger ”). On March 24, 2026, LS…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 24, 2026, LSI Industries Inc. (“ LSI ” or the “ Company ”) entered into a Credit Agreement by and among PNC Capital Markets LLC (“ PNC Capital ”) and PNC Bank, National Association, as Administrative Agent, Swingline Loan Lender and Issuing Lender (“ PNC Bank ” and together with PNC Capital, “ PNC ”), the other lenders party thereto and the guarantors party thereto. The Credit Agreement provides LSI with a senior secured credit facility (“…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” with the Securities and Exchange Commission or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. Cautionary Language Concerning Forward-Looking Statements This report contains certain forward-looking statements that are subject to numerous assumptions, risks or uncertainties. The Private Securities Li…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information in