Reading MEC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MEC free→Reading MEC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MEC free→NYSEIndustrialsMetal FabricationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed because the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 32% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $35.18. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $35 MEC trades at 1× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $51 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $23–$32. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 32% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.69x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.01 → $-0.07 (-928.4% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$205.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$383.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,723.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth picks up, it may benefit Mayville's performance. This could improve investor sentiment.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth moves back toward its highs, above 5%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth keeps slowing down below 5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MEC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On May 19, 2026, Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with William Blair & Company, L.L.C. and Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC, as representatives of the several underwriters thereto (the “Underwriters”), relating to the previously announced underwritten offering of 4,348,000 shares (the “Shares”) of the Company’s common stock, no par value per share (the “Common Stock…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$23.00 – $32.00 (median $30.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MEC Mayville Engineering Co., Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company is maintaining the high end of the range for full-year revenue guidance.
The company is focusing on supporting the Datacenter & Critical Power ramp up with incremental working capital investment.
The company aims to achieve $50 million to $60 million of incremental cross-selling revenue in 2026.
Why it matters: This report will show if Mayville can improve its loss-making status. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows smaller losses or a return to making money.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows more losses or worse financial results.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On May 5, 2026, Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for its three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of such press release is furnished as Exhibit 99 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On March 3, 2026, Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for its three and twelve months ended December 31, 2025. A copy of such press release is furnished as Exhibit 99 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On February 25, 2026, Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into the Third Amendment (the “Third Amendment”) to its Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of June 28, 2023, by and among Mayville Engineering Company, Inc., certain subsidiaries of Mayville Engineering Company, as guarantors, the lenders from time-to-time party thereto, and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as Administrative Agent for the lenders (as…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant The information set forth under