Mayville Engineering Co., Inc. (MEC)

NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$12.71-1.78%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Mayville Engineering Co., Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$160M–$170M	—
EBITDA	$15.5M–$18.5Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	163.24M
EPS	—	0.186
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$620M–$650M	636.08M
EPS	—	0.259
EBITDA	$52M–$60Mnon-GAAP	—
Free cash flow	$7M–$15M	—
Revenue growth	About 5%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	725.64M
EPS	—	1.017

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Incremental cross-selling revenue of $50 million to $60 million in 2026	The company is working on cross-selling to add $50 million to $60 million in revenue.	Intact	Incremental cross-selling revenue falls below $50 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Incremental cross-selling revenue guidance increased from $40-$50 million in 2026-Q1 to $50-$60 million in 2026-Q2. This reflects management's focus on leveraging the Accu-Fab acquisition to drive growth. The trajectory shows progress in raising expectations consistent with this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Free cash flow between $25 million and $35 million in 2026	Free cash flow is expected between $25 million and $35 million.	Broken	Free cash flow falls below $25 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $-6.648M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=$25 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026-6,648,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Full-year revenue near $605 million in 2026	A primary condition in Mayville Engineering Co., Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$605 million.	Intact	Revenue falls below $590 million in FY26	Revenue: $162.981M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$605 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026162,981,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4c97979b-20d7-4fec-ad2c-7be324b174ca. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised from a prior range of $590M-$620M to $620M-$650M, reflecting a roughly 5% increase. Revenue grew from $546.5M in 2025 to guidance of up to $650M in 2026. Management has consistently maintained or raised guidance, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Support Datacenter & Critical Power ramp with working capital investment	A supporting condition in Mayville Engineering Co., Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Sustain incremental working capital investment to support ramp.	Improving	Working capital investment fails to support Datacenter & Critical Power ramp	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. MEC secured $50 million in Datacenter & Critical Power project awards in 2026-Q1 and $40 million in 2026-Q2, with a qualified pipeline exceeding $125 million. The company is investing $50 million in organic growth initiatives to expand capacity. Revenue from this end market grew from $23.6 million in 2026-Q1 to $29.0 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting strong demand and ramp-up. The trajectory is delivering as management emphasized. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.69B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$693,170,590	4 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$693,170,590	4 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$693,170,590	4 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$693,170,590	4 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$693,170,590	4 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$693,170,590	4 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$693,170,590	4 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$693,170,590	4 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$693,170,590	4 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$693,170,590	4 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$720,006,450	4 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$720,006,450	4 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$725,646,450	4 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	0	0
2026-06-01	5	0	0
2026-07-01	5	0	0
2026-08-01	5	0	0
2026-09-01	5	0	0
2026-10-01	5	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Incremental cross-selling revenue of $50 million to $60 million in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Free cash flow between $25 million and $35 million in 2026Published status: Broken
Full-year revenue near $605 million in 2026Revenue: $162.981M
Support Datacenter & Critical Power ramp with working capital investmentQualitative condition

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-66.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Mayville Engineering Co., Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround story in the industrials sector. The current thesis state is cautious due to recent weak financial performance and elevated risks, despite some positive management initiatives.

What's priced into Mayville Engineering Co., Inc.

The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, suggesting that MEC is seen as relatively cheap compared to its peers. However, the fundamentals indicate that the company is loss-making, which adds to the uncertainty.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is focused on ramping up Datacenter & Critical Power projects and maintaining revenue guidance, which shows some positive momentum. However, the recent financial performance has been weak, and the company missed its most recent quarter, indicating potential challenges ahead.

What Mayville Engineering Co., Inc. hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like ATI, MLI, and GPGI. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a tailwind for MEC. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could further pressure MEC's performance.