Reading KRYS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KRYS free→Reading KRYS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KRYS free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future growth. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the company trades above typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 159% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how bellwethers perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $323.37. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $325 the market pays 43× p/e — above the 17× p/e peer median but in line with its own 41× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $125 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $300–$371. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 159% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.11x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.69 → $1.94 (+15.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 91% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 11.8% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$154.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$287.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,594.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop below 10% would signal a slowdown in Krystal Biotech's growth. This could affect investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains at or above 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KRYS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 4, 2026 , Krystal Biotech, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), announced its financial results for the quarter ending March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated by reference herein. The information concerning financial results in this Form 8-K and in Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$300.00 – $371.00 (median $323.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-05
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KRYS Krystal Biotech, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Continue efforts to enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Focus on increasing net income through revenue growth and cost efficiency.
Why it matters: Good results could support KB407's ability to treat cystic fibrosis.
Confirms:Results show good lung delivery and expression of CFTR protein in patients.
Disproves:Results show poor lung delivery or expression of CFTR protein.
Why it matters: This data will show if KB801 works for treating neurotrophic keratitis.
Confirms:Data shows a large improvement in NK symptoms versus placebo.
Disproves:Data shows no large improvement in NK symptoms versus placebo.
Why it matters: Improving operating income shows Krystal Biotech is managing costs well. This supports long-term growth.
Confirms:Q2 operating income is higher than in Q1.
Disproves:Q2 operating income is lower than in Q1.
Why it matters: Net income growth is important for financial health. It shows how much money the company makes.
Confirms:Q2 net income shows growth compared to Q1.
Disproves:Q2 net income declines compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Interim data will show how safe and tolerable KB408 is for AATD patients. This could affect future development.
Confirms one read:Interim data shows that KB408 is safe and well-tolerated.
Confirms the other:Interim data raises safety concerns. It shows that KB408 may not be well-tolerated.
Why it matters: This data will show if KB803 helps reduce corneal abrasion symptoms in DEB patients.
Confirms:Top-line results show at least a 25% reduction in symptom days compared to placebo.
Disproves:Results show less than a 25% reduction in symptom days compared to placebo.
Why it matters: Successful talks could grow VYJUVEK's market and revenue in Europe.
Confirms:Successful pricing deals are made with German and French authorities.
Disproves:Talks fail or lead to bad pricing terms.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 17, 2026 , Krystal Biotech, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), announced its financial results for the quarter and year ending December 31, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated by reference herein. The information concerning financial results in this Form 8-K and in Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Secur…