Krystal Biotech, Inc. (KRYS)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$311.50-2.70%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Krystal Biotech, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-4.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

9.39 → 9.02 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	133.86M
EPS	—	1.893
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	495.92M
EPS	—	7.367
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	646.04M
EPS	—	9.015

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Net income rises above $55 million	Profit and net income are rising, with operating income up $12 million since 2025.	Intact	Net income falls below $51 million	Net income: $54.768M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $55.9 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 3, 202654,768,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2990800e-b7be-4644-ad9d-1b26ae49d352. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income increases to above $53 million	Profit and net income are rising, with operating income up $12 million since 2025.	Intact	Operating income falls below $41 million	Operating income: $58.417M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $53.7 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 3, 202658,417,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2990800e-b7be-4644-ad9d-1b26ae49d352. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to about $525 million in 2026	Krystal Biotech grows revenue about 39% yearly, reaching $525 million in 2026.	Improving	Annual revenue falls below $388 million in 2026	Revenue: $119.222M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$525 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 2026119,222,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2990800e-b7be-4644-ad9d-1b26ae49d352. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$9.02

$9.87 → $9.02 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.65B

$0.67B → $0.65B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.87	$670,249,520	9 / 8
2026-07-25	$9.87	$670,249,520	9 / 8
2026-07-26	$9.87	$670,249,520	9 / 8
2026-07-27	$9.49	$653,679,038	7 / 6
2026-07-28	$9.49	$653,679,038	7 / 6
2026-07-29	$9.49	$653,679,038	7 / 6
2026-07-30	$9.87	$670,249,520	9 / 8
2026-07-31	$9.87	$670,249,520	9 / 8
2026-08-01	$9.49	$653,679,038	7 / 6
2026-08-02	$9.49	$653,679,038	7 / 6
2026-08-03	$9.87	$670,249,520	9 / 8
2026-08-04	$9.87	$670,249,520	9 / 8
2026-08-05	$9.53	$654,741,920	10 / 8
2026-08-06	$9.51	$646,896,338	7 / 6
2026-08-07	$9.05	$641,252,954	8 / 6
2026-08-08	$9.05	$641,252,954	8 / 6
2026-08-09	$9.53	$654,741,920	10 / 8
2026-08-10	$9.53	$654,741,920	10 / 8
2026-08-12	$9.05	$641,252,954	8 / 6
2026-08-13	$9.05	$641,252,954	8 / 6
2026-08-14	$9.05	$641,252,954	8 / 6
2026-08-15	$9.05	$641,252,954	8 / 6
2026-08-16	$9.05	$641,252,954	8 / 6
2026-08-17	$9.05	$641,252,954	8 / 6
2026-08-18	$9.05	$641,252,954	8 / 6
2026-08-19	$9.05	$641,252,954	8 / 6
2026-08-20	$9.43	$665,488,404	8 / 6
2026-08-21	$9.43	$665,488,404	8 / 6
2026-08-22	$9.43	$665,488,404	8 / 6
2026-08-23	$9.43	$665,488,404	8 / 6
2026-08-24	$9.43	$665,488,404	8 / 6
2026-08-25	$9.43	$665,488,404	8 / 6
2026-08-26	$9.43	$665,488,404	8 / 6
2026-08-27	$9.43	$665,488,404	8 / 6
2026-08-28	$9.43	$665,488,404	8 / 6
2026-08-29	$9.43	$665,488,404	8 / 6
2026-08-30	$9.43	$665,488,404	8 / 6
2026-08-31	$9.43	$665,488,404	8 / 6
2026-09-01	$9.43	$665,488,404	8 / 6
2026-09-02	$9.43	$665,488,404	8 / 6
2026-09-03	$9.47	$665,488,404	8 / 6
2026-09-04	$9.47	$665,488,404	8 / 6
2026-09-05	$9.47	$665,488,404	8 / 6
2026-09-06	$9.47	$665,488,404	8 / 6
2026-09-07	$9.47	$665,488,404	8 / 6
2026-09-08	$9.47	$665,488,404	8 / 6
2026-09-09	$9.47	$665,488,404	8 / 6
2026-09-10	$9.47	$665,488,404	8 / 6
2026-09-11	$9.47	$665,488,404	8 / 6
2026-09-12	$9.47	$665,508,404	8 / 6
2026-09-13	$9.47	$665,508,404	8 / 6
2026-09-14	$9.47	$665,508,404	8 / 6
2026-09-15	$9.47	$665,508,404	8 / 6
2026-09-16	$9.47	$665,508,404	8 / 6
2026-09-17	$9.47	$665,508,404	8 / 6
2026-09-18	$9.47	$665,508,404	8 / 6
2026-09-19	$9.47	$665,508,404	8 / 6
2026-09-20	$9.47	$665,508,404	8 / 6
2026-09-21	$9.47	$665,508,404	8 / 6
2026-09-22	$9.47	$665,508,404	8 / 6
2026-09-23	$9.39	$665,508,404	8 / 6
2026-09-24	$9.39	$665,508,404	8 / 6
2026-09-25	$9.35	$662,066,640	9 / 7
2026-09-26	$9.35	$662,066,640	8 / 7
2026-09-27	$9.35	$662,066,640	8 / 7
2026-09-28	$9.35	$662,066,640	9 / 7
2026-09-29	$9.35	$662,066,640	9 / 7
2026-09-30	$9.35	$662,066,640	9 / 7
2026-10-01	$9.35	$662,066,640	9 / 7
2026-10-02	$9.35	$662,066,631	9 / 7
2026-10-03	$9.35	$662,066,631	9 / 7
2026-10-04	$9.35	$662,066,631	9 / 7
2026-10-05	$9.35	$662,066,631	9 / 7
2026-10-06	$9.35	$662,066,631	9 / 7
2026-10-07	$9.35	$662,066,631	9 / 7
2026-10-08	$9.35	$662,066,631	9 / 7
2026-10-09	$9.30	$658,775,722	9 / 7
2026-10-10	$9.30	$658,775,722	9 / 7
2026-10-11	$9.30	$658,775,722	9 / 7
2026-10-12	$9.30	$658,775,722	9 / 7
2026-10-13	$9.30	$658,775,722	9 / 7
2026-10-14	$9.24	$655,598,413	9 / 7
2026-10-15	$9.24	$655,598,413	9 / 7
2026-10-16	$9.24	$655,598,413	8 / 7
2026-10-17	$9.24	$655,598,413	8 / 7
2026-10-18	$9.11	$649,773,256	9 / 7
2026-10-19	$9.11	$649,773,256	9 / 7
2026-10-20	$9.11	$649,773,256	9 / 7
2026-10-21	$9.11	$649,773,256	9 / 7
2026-10-22	$9.02	$646,036,893	9 / 7
2026-10-23	$9.02	$646,036,893	9 / 7
2026-10-24	$9.02	$646,036,893	9 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	10	1
2026-06-01	10	1
2026-07-01	10	1
2026-08-01	10	1
2026-09-01	11	1
2026-10-01	11	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Net income rises above $55 millionNet income: $54.768M
Operating income increases to above $53 millionOperating income: $58.417M
Revenue grows to about $525 million in 2026Revenue: $119.222M

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Krystal Biotech, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a commercial-growth and pipeline business, with the multi-year view centered on expanding VYJUVEK and advancing clinical programs. The thesis is intact, and recent financial performance is strong, but confidence is medium and earnings quality is neutral.

What's priced into Krystal Biotech, Inc.

KRYS is expensive versus peers, with a durable premium and a negative expectations gap, meaning expectations appear ahead of what the evidence supports. The model has low confidence, though no fragility gates fired and the premium is tagged as justified.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, VYJUVEK revenue has grown, and management’s global commercialization priority is on track, though the Spain and Italy launches were still planned in the latest disclosure. Pipeline milestones are progressing, but readouts remain pending; expense guidance is unchanged while reported R&D and SG&A costs have risen. Guidance cuts are a key near-term risk, while recent earnings beats and stronger sector context support the setup.

What Krystal Biotech, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on continued VYJUVEK expansion, delivery against the full-year expense range, and progress toward clinical milestones. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would be unfavorable; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the Healthcare backdrop.