Reading KRO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 70% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. If sector bellwethers like LIN, SHW, and ECL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Materials sector momentum should keep lifting KRO and other Materials names. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.96. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $6.98 KRO trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $22 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 68% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated weak grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=1088).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.40x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.03 → $-0.03 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$243.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$509.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,446.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well Kronos is doing financially. Investors will look for signs of recovery or more losses.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows better revenue or smaller losses than before.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows more losses or worse financial numbers.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KRO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The registrant hereby furnishes the information set forth in its press release issued on May 6, 2026, a copy of which is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The press release the registrant furnishes as Exhibit 99.1 to the current report is not deemed “filed” for purposes of section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. Registration statements o…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Specialty Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KRO Kronos Worldwide, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | moderate |
ECL Ecolab | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PPG PPG Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LYB LyondellBasell | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | — | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth in the materials sector would signal a potential recovery. This could change the outlook for Kronos.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth turns positive after being near -1% for three years.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains negative or worsens further.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The registrant hereby furnishes the information set forth in its press release issued on March 9, 2026, a copy of which is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The press release the registrant furnishes as Exhibit 99.1 to the current report is not deemed “filed” for purposes of section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. Registration statements…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 20, 2026, James M. Buch, chief executive officer of the registrant, provided notice to the registrant of his retirement, effective as of February 27, 2026, as a director and chief executive officer the registrant. In connection with his retirement as a director and officer of the registrant, Mr. Buch also provided notice to the regist…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The registrant hereby furnishes the information set forth in its press release issued on November 6, 2025, a copy of which is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The press release the registrant furnishes as Exhibit 99.1 to the current report is not deemed “filed” for purposes of section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. Registration stateme…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Private Placement of Additional Notes On September 15, 2025, Kronos International, Inc. (the “Issuer”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Kronos Worldwide, Inc. (the “Company”), completed the institutional private placement of €75 million in aggregate principal amount of 9.50% senior secured notes due 2029 (the “New Notes”). The New Notes were issued as additional notes to the existing €351,174,000 aggregate principal amount of 9.50% senior secured notes…