Reading KOS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KOS free→Reading KOS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KOS free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with KOS trading below typical for its peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 51% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact KOS's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.54. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.54 KOS trades at 1× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $4.89 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $2.25–$3.00. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 48% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated weak grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.30x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.08 → $0.07 (-16.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 46% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -8.1% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$385.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$769.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,357.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the energy sector rises, it could help Kosmos recover. This is crucial for its performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth exceeds 2% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 2% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KOS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Kosmos Energy Ltd. (the “Company”) issued a news release announcing results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the news release issued by the Company is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to liabili…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$2.25 – $3.00 (median $2.45) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KOS Kosmos Energy Ltd. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 3 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
COP ConocoPhillips | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
EOG EOG Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | full | moderate |
OXY Occidental Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FANG Diamondback Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=329).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Kosmos Energy aims to achieve a 20% reduction in operating costs year-on-year.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The financials show a net income loss of $225.6M in 2026-Q1, compared to a loss of $110.6M in 2025-Q1, indicating limited progress on cost reduction so far. The trajectory is not yet delivering the intended cost savings.
“drive a material reduction in operating costs of around 20% year-on-year.”
Kosmos Energy plans to maintain its capital expenditure for FY26 at approximately $350 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The guidance for FY26 capital expenditure remains at $350 million. However, the financials do not yet show specific capex figures for 2026-Q1, indicating no visible progress on this commitment.
“Capital Expenditure ~$350 million”
Kosmos Energy aims to increase its production to between 70,000 and 78,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in FY26.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The financials do not provide specific production figures for 2026-Q1, making it difficult to assess progress towards the production target of 70,000-78,000 boe per day. The trajectory remains unclear.
“FY 2026 Production(1,2,3) 70,000 - 78,000 boe per day”
Why it matters: This report will show if Kosmos can improve its financial performance. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 2% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue decline or flat growth year over year.
Why it matters: What management thinks can affect how investors feel. A change might show a recovery.
Confirms one read:Management shares a more positive view on how the company will do in the future.
Confirms the other:Management keeps or gets more worried about the future.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 2, 2026, Kosmos Energy Ltd. (the “Company”) issued a news release announcing results for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the news release issued by the Company is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subj…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 24, 2026, Kosmos Energy Operating (“KEO”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Kosmos Energy Ltd. (“Kosmos” or the “Company”), and Panoro Energy Block G Limited (the “Purchaser”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Panoro Energy ASA, entered into a Share Sale and Purchase Agreement (the “SPA”) for the sale of all of the shares of KEO’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Kosmos International Petroleum, Inc., which indirectly holds a 40.375% participating intere…
Regulation FD Disclosure. Early Tender Results On January 29, 2026, Kosmos Energy Ltd. (“Kosmos” or the “Company”) announced the early tender results of its previously announced cash tender offer (the “Tender Offer”) for up to $250,000,000 aggregate principal amount of Kosmos’s outstanding 7.750% Senior Notes due 2027 (the “Notes”). The Tender Offer is being made upon the terms and subject to the conditions set forth in the offer to purchase dated January 12, 2026 (as amended and supplemented…
Regulation FD Disclosure. Tender Offer Early Tender Time Extension On January 26, 2026, Kosmos Energy Ltd. (“Kosmos” or the “Company”) announced that it is extending the Early Tender Time and Withdrawal Deadline (each as defined in the Company’s Offer to Purchase dated January 12, 2026, as amended and supplemented (the “Offer to Purchase”)) relating to the Company’s cash tender offer (the “Tender Offer”) of up to $250.0 million aggregate principal amount of its outstanding 7.750% Senior Notes…
“FY26 capital expenditure is expected to be around $350 million”