Reading IOSP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IOSP free→Reading IOSP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IOSP free→NASDAQMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with IOSP trading above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 17% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $83.74. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $85 IOSP trades at 17× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $98 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 13% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.13x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.05 → $1.05 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$94.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$245.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,548.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Sequential growth in Q2 is key to showing the company's recovery and market strength.
Confirms:Q2 revenue grew by more than 5% compared to the previous quarter.
Disproves:Q2 revenue fell below 0% compared to the previous quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for IOSP yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Class II director — Shelley Bausch: The Board appointed Shelley Bausch as a new Class II director and to the Audit Committee.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Specialty Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
IOSP Innospec, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | moderate |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | full | moderate |
ECL Ecolab | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PPG PPG Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LYB LyondellBasell | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | — | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated stable grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=210).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company has authorized a share repurchase program of up to $75 million.
The company declared a semi-annual cash dividend of $0.92 per share.
The company aims to drive sequential growth in the second quarter of 2026.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps with buybacks and dividends. This shows the company is financially healthy.
Confirms:Operating cash flow exceeds $20 million in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Operating cash flow falls below $10 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The $0.92 dividend shows they want to return cash to shareholders.
Confirms:The company confirms the payment of the $0.92 dividend on May 29, 2026.
Disproves:The company delays or cancels the dividend payment.
Why it matters: Sector performance affects Innospec's growth. Changes can influence how investors feel.
Confirms one read:Materials sector revenue growth turns positive after a year of decline.
Confirms the other:Materials sector revenue growth keeps going down.
Why it matters: Updates on the $75 million share buyback show management's confidence in the stock.
Confirms:Look for news on share repurchases in the next quarter.
Disproves:No updates or delays in the share repurchase program within the next quarter.
Why it matters: Growth in Performance Chemicals is key to offsetting recent margin declines. It shows recovery and demand strength.
Confirms:Performance Chemicals revenue grows sequentially by more than 3% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Performance Chemicals revenue drops or stays the same in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The $75 million share buyback could boost earnings per share and investor confidence.
Confirms:The company announces it has repurchased at least $20 million of its shares.
Disproves:No share buybacks reported. There is a big delay in the program.
Why it matters: The $75 million buyback shows the company wants to give value back to shareholders. It shows management's confidence.
Confirms:At least $10 million of the buyback is executed by the end of Q2 2026.
Disproves:Less than $5 million of the buyback is executed by the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The conflict may delay growth plans. Understanding its impact helps gauge future performance in this segment.
Confirms one read:Oilfield Services revenue grows by more than 5% in Q2 2026 despite the conflict.
Confirms the other:Oilfield Services revenue declines by more than 5% in Q2 2026 due to the conflict.
Why it matters: The dividend announcement shows the company's financial health. It also means cash for shareholders.
Confirms:Confirmation of the $0.92 per share dividend payment for the next cycle.
Disproves:There is no news about the dividend payment this time.
and Exhibit 99.1 hereto shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (“Securities Act”), unless otherwise expressly indicated in such registration statement or other document.
Regulation FD Disclosure Dividend and Share Repurchase Authorization The Company also announced in the Press Release that on May 1, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors declared a semi-annual cash dividend of $0.92 per share on the Company’s Common Stock, par value $0.01 per share (“Common Stock”). The dividend will be paid on May 29, 2026 to shareholders of record as of May 19, 2026. In addition, the Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to $75 million in shares of the Company…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 17, 2026, Innospec Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025 (the “Press Release”).