Reading INGM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track INGM free→Reading INGM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track INGM free→NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash flow. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind, with conditions in the market heating up. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair), and the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $29.08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $30 INGM trades at 10× p/e, in line with its 10× p/e peer median. Our $31 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $26–$34. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 2% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.39x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.73 → $0.74 (+0.7% / 30d). 8 raised, 5 cut, 14 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 47% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$159.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$362.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,844.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales trends impact Ingram Micro's business. Strong sales suggest better demand for its products.
Confirms:Retail sales increase more than 0.5% in the report on June 17, 2026.
Disproves:Retail sales decrease or grow less than 0.5% in the report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for INGM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Underwriting Agreement On May 5, 2026, Ingram Micro Holding Company (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Ingram Holdco, LLC (the “Selling Stockholder”), Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (collectively, the “Underwriting Representatives”) on their own behalf and as representatives of the other underwriters listed on Schedule I thereto (collectively, t…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$26.00 – $34.00 (median $29.50) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-05
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus IT Consulting & Other Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
INGM Ingram Micro Holding Corp | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | fair | moderate |
IBM IBM | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ACN Accenture | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | full | elevated |
CTSH Cognizant | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | fair | elevated |
APLD APPLIED DIGITAL CORPORATION | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | expensive | high |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Ingram Micro has announced a share buyback program to enhance shareholder value.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company announced a share buyback program on May 5, 2026, and has consistently communicated its intention to repurchase shares to enhance shareholder value. However, no specific buyback volume or financial impact was disclosed, indicating limited substantive delivery so far.
“The company announced a share buyback program on May 5, 2026.”
“The company issued a press release announcing the launch of the Offering and concurrent Share Repurchase.”
“The Board approved an increase to the aggregate amount of common stock the Company may repurchase.”
Ingram Micro provided EPS guidance for Q2 2026 between $0.68 and $0.78.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Ingram Micro provided EPS guidance for Q2 2026 between $0.68 and $0.78. This is the first quarter this guidance has been provided, and the company has yet to report actual results for this period to assess delivery.
“Non-GAAP diluted EPS for Q2 2026 expected to be $0.68 to $0.78.”
Ingram Micro expects net sales for Q2 2026 to be between $13.6 billion and $14.0 billion.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Ingram Micro expects net sales for Q2 2026 to be between $13.6 billion and $14.0 billion. This is the first quarter this guidance has been provided, and the company has yet to report actual results for this period to assess delivery.
“Net sales for Q2 2026 expected to be $13.6 billion to $14.0 billion.”
Why it matters: Interest rate changes can impact borrowing costs and consumer spending. This affects Ingram Micro's sales.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates by more than 25 basis points on June 17, 2026.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Why it matters: If Ingram Micro's revenue growth falls below the median, it signals weakening demand. This could impact its market position.
Confirms:Ingram Micro reports revenue growth below the sector median growth rate.
Disproves:Ingram Micro maintains or exceeds the sector median revenue growth rate.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Ingram Micro Holding Corporation (“Ingram Micro” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the Thirteen Weeks Ended March 28, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this
Other Events. On May 5, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the launch of the Offering and concurrent Share Repurchase, which is filed herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. On May 5, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the pricing of the Offering and concurrent Share Repurchase, which is filed herewith as Exhibit 99.2 and incorporated by reference herein.
Other Events. On April 30, 2026, the Company announced that its board of directors (the "Board") had declared a cash dividend on the Company’s common stock of $0.084 per share. The dividend is payable on May 26, 2026, to stockholders of record as of May 12, 2026. On April 30, 2026, the Company also announced that the Board approved an increase to the aggregate amount of common stock, par value $0.01 per share (“Common Stock”), the Company may repurchase in connection with one or more secondar…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Underwriting Agreement On March 5, 2026, Ingram Micro Holding Company (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Ingram Holdco, LLC (the “Selling Stockholder”), Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (collectively, the “Underwriting Representatives”) on their own behalf and as representatives of the other underwriters listed on Schedule I thereto (collectively,…