Reading BBAI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BBAI free→
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI)
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$3.96-2.10%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been fairly steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is high, and compared with sector peers, it is below typical for the sector. Peer multiples imply a price about 46% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Information Technology Services
- Market cap
- $1.93B
- Employees
- 579
- IPO date
- 2021-01-22
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.96. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$2.84consensus
Range $2.84 – $2.84
vs price: +43% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$2.53consensus
Range $2.53 – $2.53
vs price: +60% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $4.05, BBAI's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 7× p/s (5.5× the 1× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~43% near-term growth vs our ~-22% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $2.83 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
6.7x
peer 1.2x · own history —
Premium
5.5x peer
Growth the price needs
43%
our forecast -22%
Our fair value
$2.83
range $1.78 – $3.88
WhyPeer anchor understates a real premiumOptionality our model can't price
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensive12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 43% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -22%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
32nd pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 0.18x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
NeutralEPS revised +39.1% / 30d, n=3for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.08 → $-0.05 (+39.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): tailwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme AI/accelerated-compute.tailwind
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$324.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$829.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,588.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- score change · management_scoresmall change
Management fell by 11.5 points (from 28.0 to 16.5).
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth dropping below 0%
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below zero, it signals deeper issues in the business. This could indicate a loss of market position or demand.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported at less than 0%.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains positive year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BBAI yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Downside triggers
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-051mo agoItem 2.02
disclosure. The information provided in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 of this Current Report, is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any of the Company's filings under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, unless expressly set forth as being incorpo…
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.