BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI)
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-14
$2.88+0.35%
Close 2026-09-14 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-14
Research Workspace
Put BBAI beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
IT Consulting & Other Services is in recovery. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 14% over the past year.
View GrowthManagement screens weak on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 101% growth a year, above the roughly 19% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 3% on a typical day and fell roughly 71% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskBBAI's growth in defense AI has to keep compounding to justify the price. Revenue grew 13% year over year, but the last quarter missed expectations. It trades at 10× sales versus a peer median of 1×. The market is pricing in more growth than we forecast. If BBAI cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. Peer multiples imply a price about 115% below where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-14. BBAI is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 2 analysts currently covering BBAI (as of Sep 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
Continue this research
Compare BBAI with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBAI Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus IT Consulting & Other Services — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put BBAI next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Affirm full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $135M-$165M
Backlog growth supports revenue guidance and margin expansion.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-14. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Advances: Affirm full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $135M-$165M
Backlog growth supports revenue guidance for 2026.
Advances: Affirm full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $135M-$165M
New defense AI wins support revenue growth objectives.
Foundational deal supports revenue growth objectives.
Flat growth raises concerns about valuation and future performance.
Cautious forecast indicates potential revenue challenges.
Cargo security deal enhances growth narrative.