BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI)

NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$2.14+0.47%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	27.56M
EPS	—	-0.04
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$135M–$165M	112.88M
EPS	—	-0.263
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	126.58M
EPS	—	-0.17

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Gross profit improves beyond $11.7 million quarterly	Gross profit improved to $11.7 million in 2026-Q1.	Intact	gross profit falls below $11.7 million quarterly	Gross profit: $12.051M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >11.7 million USD per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202612,051,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6dd60e0f-6715-4ec3-9e49-72a0314a0b9b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Management maintains or improves revenue guidance	A supporting condition in BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No further downward revisions to 2026 revenue guidance.	Intact	guidance is cut below $135 million for 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew 13% year-over-year to $36.7 million in 2026-Q2 from $32.5 million in 2025-Q2. Management has consistently affirmed the full-year 2026 revenue guidance range of $135 million to $165 million, and the trajectory is delivering against this target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue reaches at least $135 million in 2026	A primary condition in BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=135 million USD.	Intact	revenue falls below $135 million in FY26	Revenue: $36.749M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=135 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202636,749,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6dd60e0f-6715-4ec3-9e49-72a0314a0b9b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew 13% year-over-year to $36.7 million in 2026-Q2 from $32.5 million in 2025-Q2. Management has consistently affirmed the full-year 2026 revenue guidance range of $135 million to $165 million, and the trajectory is delivering against this target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	2
2026-06-01	1	2
2026-07-01	1	2
2026-08-01	1	2
2026-09-01	0	2
2026-10-01	0	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Gross profit improves beyond $11.7 million quarterlyGross profit: $12.051M
Management maintains or improves revenue guidanceDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue reaches at least $135 million in 2026Revenue: $36.749M

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-70.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is speculative growth, not an established profitable compounder. Its multi-year view is in a watch state: management is on track with several stated goals, but recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.

What's priced into BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.

The valuation model shows BBAI at a 6.23 premium versus peers, with low confidence in that estimate and an expectations gap of 0.89. The snapshot tags the pricing as unjustified, though overall fragility is low because the concern is expensive valuation rather than a wider combination of weak fundamentals and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show progress: second-quarter revenue grew 13% year over year, gross margin expanded, and operating and net losses narrowed. Management has reaffirmed its 2026 revenue guidance, but momentum has fallen and the business remains loss-making, so the improvement still needs to continue.

What BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. hinges on

The key company-specific test is whether management maintains guidance and keeps expanding margins while reducing losses. A guidance cut would weaken the thesis; continued execution would support it. Near-term sector conditions also matter, including interest rates and results from large technology peers, although the evidence for their effect on BBAI is limited.