BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI)
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$2.83-3.08%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
BigBear.ai aims for revenue near $150 million in 2026. Gross profit improved to $11.7 million in 2026-Q1. The company secured key deals supporting growth. AI demand tailwinds help its defense and intelligence focus.
The company is still loss-making with negative EPS. Revenue growth is slowing and guidance was recently cut. Market doubts its ability to reach profitability soon. Valuation is stretched despite weak fundamentals.
The price is about 29% above our fair value near $2.58. Analysts expect 16% revenue growth, but recent guidance cuts and losses suggest risk. Our view is more cautious on growth and profitability.
Breaks if: gross profit falls below $11.7 million quarterly
Breaks if: guidance is cut below $135 million for 2026
revenue falls below $135 million in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround opportunity. BBAI is currently loss-making but is working on improving its financial performance and margins.
The market seems to have priced in a high level of fragility due to its expensive valuation, which is not fully justified given the company's weak recent performance. There is a significant expectations gap compared to peers.
Management has reaffirmed revenue guidance and is on track to improve gross margins and reduce net losses. However, recent financial performance has been weak compared to industry peers, which could pose risks.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to meet revenue guidance, the impact of potential Fed rate cuts, and the performance of sector leaders that could influence BBAI's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company affirmed its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $135M-$165M. However, it also reported a recent earnings miss, which raises concerns about performance.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
In the next 1 to 3 years, BBAI's performance will depend on its execution of strategic priorities and external market conditions. Not investment advice.