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APPLIED DIGITAL CORPORATION (APLD)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$46.27-0.43%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and it is trading below typical for sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 554% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Information Technology Services
- Market cap
- $13.16B
- Employees
- 205
- IPO date
- 2008-10-22
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $46.27. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$6.86consensus
Range $6.86 – $6.86
vs price: +574% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-year—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $46, APLD's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 30× p/s (25.1× the 1× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~565% near-term growth vs our ~100% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $6.98 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $51–$90. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
30.2x
peer 1.2x · own history —
Premium
25.1x peer
Growth the price needs
565%
our forecast 100%
Our fair value
$6.98
range $6.98 – $6.98
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 565% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 100%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
1st pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 0.23x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised -52.8% / 30d, n=2for period ending 2026-08-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.18 → $-0.28 (-52.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 7 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 77.8% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$382.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$944.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,031.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for court results that affect company operations.
Why it matters: Ongoing court cases can affect operations and finances. Bad results may slow growth.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Court cases end with a good result for the company.
Disproves:Court cases end with a ruling that hurts operations or finances.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for APLD yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for APLD and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like IBM, ACN, and CTSH keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting APLD and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If APLD raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-08), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If APLD cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-08), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like IBM, ACN, and CTSH start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping APLD and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-098d agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure. On June 8, 2026, Applied Digital Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that it closed a revolving credit facility (the “Credit Facility”) on May 29, 2026. The Credit Facility was arranged by Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC and provides for up to $350 million of committed capacity with an additional accordion option of up to $200 million. Proceeds from the Credit Facility will be used to support the pre- and post-lease development of the Com…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+8.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.