APPLIED DIGITAL CORPORATION (APLD)

NASDAQInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$18.25-4.40%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge APPLIED DIGITAL CORPORATION’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-11-30
Revenue	—	159.36M
EPS	—	-0.309
Quarter ending 2027-02-28
Revenue	—	213.03M
EPS	—	-0.251
Annual ending 2027-05-31
Revenue	—	944.31M
EPS	—	-1.59
Annual ending 2028-05-31
Revenue	—	1.94B
EPS	—	-0.933

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Secure and deploy at least $350M financing for growth	A supporting condition in APPLIED DIGITAL CORPORATION's published investment case. The stated target is >=350 million USD credit facility secured by 2026-Q3.	Intact	failure to maintain or replace $350M credit facility by 2026-Q3	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves from -$86M towards breakeven	A primary condition in APPLIED DIGITAL CORPORATION's published investment case. The stated target is operating loss narrows by at least 50% by 2027-FY.	Intact	operating loss worsens beyond -$86M in any quarter through 2027-FY	Operating income: $-62.379M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: operating loss narrows by at least 50% by 2027-FY. Target and observation units differ. Source published Oct 7, 2026-62,379,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Aug 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: adb111da-e027-4d69-bb4d-a8cedfed5d94. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to at least $127M by 2026-Q3	A primary condition in APPLIED DIGITAL CORPORATION's published investment case. The stated target is >=126.6 million USD.	Intact	revenue falls below $64M in any quarter through 2026-Q3	Revenue: $341.875M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=126.6 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Oct 7, 2026341,875,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Aug 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: adb111da-e027-4d69-bb4d-a8cedfed5d94. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-05-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$-0.93

Unavailable → $-0.93 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$1.94B

$2.03B → $1.94B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$2,034,725,286	2 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$2,034,725,286	2 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$2,026,517,378	1 / 6
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$2,026,517,378	2 / 6
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$2,026,517,378	2 / 6
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$1,781,966,290	3 / 7
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,781,966,290	3 / 7
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$1,781,966,290	3 / 7
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$1,781,966,290	3 / 7
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$1,781,966,290	3 / 7
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$1,814,809,150	3 / 7
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$1,814,809,150	3 / 7
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$1,814,809,150	3 / 7
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$1,814,809,150	3 / 7
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$2,049,885,202	3 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$1,904,828,090	3 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$1,904,828,090	3 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$1,904,828,090	3 / 5
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$2,049,885,202	3 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$1,904,828,090	3 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$1,904,828,090	3 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$2,049,885,202	3 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$1,904,162,352	4 / 5
2026-09-24	$-0.55	$1,925,617,805	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$-0.55	$1,925,617,805	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$-0.55	$1,925,617,805	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$-0.53	$1,899,547,205	6 / 6
2026-09-28	$-0.53	$1,899,547,205	6 / 6
2026-09-29	$-0.53	$1,899,547,205	6 / 6
2026-09-30	$-0.53	$1,899,547,205	6 / 6
2026-10-01	$-0.53	$1,899,547,205	6 / 6
2026-10-02	$-0.53	$1,899,547,205	6 / 6
2026-10-03	$-0.53	$1,899,547,205	6 / 6
2026-10-04	$-0.53	$1,899,547,205	6 / 6
2026-10-05	$-0.53	$1,899,547,205	6 / 6
2026-10-06	$-0.53	$1,899,547,205	6 / 6
2026-10-07	$-0.53	$1,899,547,205	6 / 6
2026-10-08	$-0.54	$1,898,983,477	6 / 6
2026-10-09	$-0.78	$1,920,633,729	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$-0.78	$1,935,059,687	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$-0.78	$1,935,059,687	5 / 7
2026-10-12	$-0.78	$1,935,059,687	5 / 7
2026-10-13	$-0.78	$1,935,059,687	5 / 7
2026-10-14	$-0.78	$1,935,059,687	5 / 7
2026-10-15	$-0.78	$1,935,059,687	5 / 7
2026-10-16	$-0.78	$1,935,059,687	5 / 7
2026-10-17	$-0.78	$1,935,059,687	5 / 7
2026-10-18	$-0.78	$1,935,059,687	5 / 7
2026-10-19	$-0.78	$1,935,059,687	5 / 7
2026-10-20	$-0.78	$1,937,023,972	5 / 7
2026-10-21	$-0.78	$1,937,023,972	5 / 7
2026-10-22	$-0.93	$1,935,782,374	5 / 7
2026-10-23	$-0.93	$1,935,782,374	5 / 7
2026-10-24	$-0.93	$1,935,782,374	5 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	11	0
2026-06-01	11	0
2026-07-01	11	1
2026-08-01	10	1
2026-09-01	13	2
2026-10-01	14	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Roth CapitalOct 21

$35.00New observation · no comparable prior

Morgan StanleyOct 9 · prior Aug 6

$37.50 → $41.00+9.3%

Wells FargoOct 8 · prior Sep 17

$50.00 → $55.00+10.0%

NeedhamOct 8 · prior Jun 9

$83.00 → $70.00-15.7%

$0$45.65$91.30

2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Secure and deploy at least $350M financing for growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Operating income improves from -$86M towards breakevenOperating income: $-62.379M
Revenue grows to at least $127M by 2026-Q3Revenue: $341.875M

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-63.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

APPLIED DIGITAL CORPORATION outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

APLD is a high-risk growth story tied to AI infrastructure, rather than a proven durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is still in a watch state: campus and HPC Hosting growth are progressing, while recent financial performance is weak and management execution is rated volatile.

What's priced into APPLIED DIGITAL CORPORATION

The valuation model places APLD at a 6.46-point premium to peers, with a low-confidence estimate and an expectations gap that leans negative. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility; the valuation score also rose by 16.4 points recently, so expectations appear to have increased despite the recent earnings misses.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, earnings may remain uneven: APLD missed its two most recent reported quarters, and the next result is a key watch point. Over the multi-year view, revenue and HPC Hosting have grown as contracted AI Factory capacity expanded, but the company remains loss-making and financing construction is an ongoing, mixed execution priority.

What APPLIED DIGITAL CORPORATION hinges on

A guidance cut at the next call would deepen concern about execution and estimates. The thesis also depends on continued campus expansion, growth in HPC Hosting, and access to financing; Fed rate cuts and strength among major technology companies are possible sector tailwinds, not proof of APLD-specific progress.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, APLD offers substantial growth potential tied to contracted AI infrastructure, balanced by high financial and execution risk, weak recent results, and a peer valuation premium. The key evidence to watch is whether growth converts into steadier results without guidance setbacks. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-11-30
Revenue	—	159.36M
EPS	—	-0.309
Quarter ending 2027-02-28
Revenue	—	213.03M
EPS	—	-0.251
Annual ending 2027-05-31
Revenue	—	944.31M
EPS	—	-1.59
Annual ending 2028-05-31
Revenue	—	1.94B
EPS	—	-0.933

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-05-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$-0.93

Unavailable → $-0.93 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$1.94B

$2.03B → $1.94B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$2,034,725,286	2 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$2,034,725,286	2 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$2,026,517,378	1 / 6
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$2,026,517,378	2 / 6
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$2,026,517,378	2 / 6
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$1,781,966,290	3 / 7
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,781,966,290	3 / 7
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$1,781,966,290	3 / 7
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$1,781,966,290	3 / 7
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$1,781,966,290	3 / 7
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$1,814,809,150	3 / 7
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$1,814,809,150	3 / 7
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$1,814,809,150	3 / 7
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$1,814,809,150	3 / 7
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$2,049,885,202	3 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$1,904,828,090	3 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$1,904,828,090	3 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$1,904,828,090	3 / 5
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$2,049,885,202	3 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$1,904,828,090	3 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$1,904,828,090	3 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$2,049,885,202	3 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$1,904,162,352	4 / 5
2026-09-24	$-0.55	$1,925,617,805	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$-0.55	$1,925,617,805	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$-0.55	$1,925,617,805	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$-0.53	$1,899,547,205	6 / 6
2026-09-28	$-0.53	$1,899,547,205	6 / 6
2026-09-29	$-0.53	$1,899,547,205	6 / 6
2026-09-30	$-0.53	$1,899,547,205	6 / 6
2026-10-01	$-0.53	$1,899,547,205	6 / 6
2026-10-02	$-0.53	$1,899,547,205	6 / 6
2026-10-03	$-0.53	$1,899,547,205	6 / 6
2026-10-04	$-0.53	$1,899,547,205	6 / 6
2026-10-05	$-0.53	$1,899,547,205	6 / 6
2026-10-06	$-0.53	$1,899,547,205	6 / 6
2026-10-07	$-0.53	$1,899,547,205	6 / 6
2026-10-08	$-0.54	$1,898,983,477	6 / 6
2026-10-09	$-0.78	$1,920,633,729	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$-0.78	$1,935,059,687	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$-0.78	$1,935,059,687	5 / 7
2026-10-12	$-0.78	$1,935,059,687	5 / 7
2026-10-13	$-0.78	$1,935,059,687	5 / 7
2026-10-14	$-0.78	$1,935,059,687	5 / 7
2026-10-15	$-0.78	$1,935,059,687	5 / 7
2026-10-16	$-0.78	$1,935,059,687	5 / 7
2026-10-17	$-0.78	$1,935,059,687	5 / 7
2026-10-18	$-0.78	$1,935,059,687	5 / 7
2026-10-19	$-0.78	$1,935,059,687	5 / 7
2026-10-20	$-0.78	$1,937,023,972	5 / 7
2026-10-21	$-0.78	$1,937,023,972	5 / 7
2026-10-22	$-0.93	$1,935,782,374	5 / 7
2026-10-23	$-0.93	$1,935,782,374	5 / 7
2026-10-24	$-0.93	$1,935,782,374	5 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings