APPLIED DIGITAL CORPORATION (APLD)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$27.14-4.13%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Applied Digital is growing revenue fast, from $64M to $127M in 2026-Q3. It secured $350M credit to fund growth and landed big deals like 1GW contracted capacity. These moves could turn losses into profits over time.
The company is still losing money with operating income worsening from -$22M to -$86M. Recent guidance cuts and a sharp stock selloff show risks. Debt and equity sales add financial pressure.
The stock trades about 38% below our fair value near $49, reflecting analysts' 100% revenue growth expectations. Our fair value is 30% below the Street median, signaling cautious optimism versus more bullish views.
Breaks if: failure to maintain or replace $350M credit facility by 2026-Q3
Breaks if: operating loss worsens beyond -$86M in any quarter through 2027-FY
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. APLD is focused on expanding its AI Factory campuses and data center hosting, but it is currently facing volatility in management and financial performance.
The market seems to have priced in a significant expectations gap, indicating that APLD is viewed as somewhat overvalued compared to its peers. The valuation shows a premium, suggesting that investors expect future growth despite current losses.
Fundamentals are likely to remain weak in the near term, especially after a recent earnings miss. However, there are signs of growth in specific segments, such as HPC Hosting, which could provide some stability.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on expansion plans and secure financing. Additionally, external factors like Federal Reserve rate changes and performance from sector leaders could significantly influence APLD's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified that could weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: revenue falls below $64M in any quarter through 2026-Q3
Overall, APLD is in a precarious position with mixed signals from management and recent performance. Not investment advice.