IBM (IBM)
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-30
$257.81-0.18%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-30
Research Workspace
Put IBM beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
IT Consulting & Other Services is in recovery. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Achieve over 5% revenue growth: Comparison needs review.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 7% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 1% on a typical day and fell roughly 38% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskIBM’s case rests on hybrid-cloud and AI software growth, backed by cash-generative earnings. Revenue growth rose from 1% to 5%, and the latest quarter beat. IBM trades at 21× P/E versus 15× for peers, despite expectations looking modest versus our view. The primary revenue-growth pillar needs review, and enterprise customers are scrutinizing AI spending returns. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 13%. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% below where it trades; the thesis is on watch, and this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. IBM is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 25 analysts currently covering IBM (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 14 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for IBM in the last 4 months.
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Compare IBM with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBM Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus IT Consulting & Other Services — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put IBM next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Accelerate revenue growth through a focused portfolio
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $257.81
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $257.81.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
New enterprise AI-agent identity and control offering extends IBM’s focused portfolio and supports revenue growth.
Advances: Accelerate revenue growth through a focused portfolio
Q3 earnings and improving margins support focused-portfolio growth and productivity objectives.
Advances: Increase free cash flow by about $1 billion year over year
A stronger cash outlook supports IBM's free-cash-flow objective.
Advances: Accelerate revenue growth through a focused portfolio
Software growth and cash-flow outlook support IBM's growth and cash objectives.
Advances: Accelerate revenue growth to more than 5% annually
Reported Q3 earnings beat supports growth, though the stock’s decline suggests investor concerns remain.
Threatens: Accelerate revenue growth to more than 5% annually
2026 growth outlook below the greater-than-5% objective, partly offset by stronger free cash flow.
Advances: Accelerate revenue growth through a focused portfolio
5% sales growth and raised software outlook support portfolio-led growth.
Advances: Accelerate revenue growth to more than 5% annually
Earnings and revenue beat estimates, supporting growth objectives; the headline alone gives limited detail.
