Reading HPK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HPK free→Reading HPK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HPK free→NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 58% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. If HPK cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.63. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $7.63 HPK trades at 1× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $18 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 58% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.02x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated fragile grew net income 38% of the time over the next year (vs 44% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.17 → $0.02 (+111.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$372.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$933.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,622.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results show how well the company is doing now and in the future.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows a profit or improvement in key metrics.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows a loss or further decline in key metrics.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HPK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liabilities of that section, and is not incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated therein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HPK HighPeak Energy, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
COP ConocoPhillips | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
EOG EOG Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | full | moderate |
OXY Occidental Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FANG Diamondback Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=329).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
HighPeak Energy aims to keep its capital expenditures within the range of $255 million to $285 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. HighPeak Energy has set a capital expenditure guidance of $255 million to $285 million for 2026. This is a new priority for the company, and its adherence to this range will be crucial for capital allocation discipline.
“Guidance: '2026 Total Capital Expenditures $255 - $285 ($MM)'”
HighPeak Energy plans to operate between 36 and 38 wells during the fiscal year 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. HighPeak Energy has set a target to operate between 36 and 38 wells in 2026. This is a new operational goal, and its achievement will be indicative of the company's growth strategy execution.
“Guidance: 'Operated Wells TIL’d 36 - 38'”
HighPeak Energy aims to improve its net income performance, addressing recent negative results.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. HighPeak Energy reported a net income of -$127.4 million in 2026-Q1, a significant decline from previous quarters. The company needs to address this negative performance to improve its financial health.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it may signal a positive shift in company momentum.
Confirms:Revenue growth rises above 2% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains at or below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: What management thinks can show changes in plans or how they expect to perform.
Confirms one read:Management shows they believe in future growth or new plans.
Confirms the other:Management seems worried about how the company will do in the future. They are concerned about market conditions.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On May 6, 2026, HighPeak Energy, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), entered into a Sales Agreement (the “Sales Agreement”) with Roth Capital Partners, LLC, as lead agent (the “Lead Agent”) and USCA Securities LLC (“USCA,” and together with the Lead Agent, the “Agents” and each, an “Agent”), pursuant to which the Company may offer and sell, from time to time, through or to the Agents, shares (“Placement Shares”) of common stock of the Compa…
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject to liabilities of that section, and is not incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated therein by reference.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On November 4, 2025, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of HighPeak Energy, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Michael L. Hollis, the Company’s current President and Interim Chief Executive Officer and a member of the Board, as the Company’s Chief Executive Officer, on a permanent basis, effective immediately. Mr. Hollis will serve until his death, d…
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject to liabilities of that section, and is not incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated therein by reference.
“Net income was -$127.4M in 2026-Q1, a significant decline from previous quarters.”