Reading HLMN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HLMN free→Reading HLMN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HLMN free→NASDAQIndustrialsTools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 53% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact HLMN's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.98. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $7.98 HLMN trades at 14× p/e, below its 24× p/e peer median. Our $17 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 52% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.40x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.17 → $0.17 (+1.2% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$131.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$313.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,445.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Interest rates affect borrowing costs and consumer spending. A rate hike could slow demand.
Confirms:FOMC raises the interest rate by 25 basis points or more.
Disproves:FOMC keeps the interest rate unchanged or lowers it.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HLMN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 27, 2026, Hillman Solutions Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release, furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference, announcing the Company's selected summary financial results for its thirteen weeks ended March 28, 2026. The information provided pursuant to Item 2.02, including the exhibit attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HLMN Hillman Solutions Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | low |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Hillman Solutions Corp. has raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance, driven by recent acquisitions.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue guidance increased to $1.63B-$1.73B for 2026, driven by acquisitions. Revenue in 2026-Q1 was $370.1M, up from $365.1M in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows delivering on growth expectations.
“We are raising our full year net sales guidance, driven by the two acquisitions...”
“Full Year 2026 Guidance Net Sales $1.600 to $1.700 billion”
“management is updating its guidance most recently provided on August 5, 2025...”
Hillman Solutions Corp. has affirmed its free cash flow guidance for 2026 at $100 to $120 million.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Free cash flow guidance affirmed at $100M-$120M for 2026. Cash from operating activities was -$19.5M in 2026-Q1, down from $30.9M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards the target.
Hillman Solutions Corp. aims to achieve its adjusted EBITDA guidance of $275 to $285 million for 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance set at $275M-$285M for 2026. Operating income was $7.2M in 2026-Q1, down from $16.7M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards achieving the EBITDA target.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can impact demand for Hillman’s products. A strong report signals better sales potential.
Confirms:Retail sales increase by more than 0.5% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales decline by more than 0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects overall economic health. Strong growth can boost Hillman's sales outlook.
Confirms:GDP growth is revised up to above 2% for Q1 2026.
Disproves:GDP growth is revised down to below 1% for Q1 2026.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K. Forward Looking Statements. This Current Report on Form 8-K contains statements considered to be forward-looking are made in good faith by the Company and are intended to qualify for the safe harbor from liability established by Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. You should not rely on these forward-looking statements as predictions of futur…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 17, 2026, Hillman Solutions Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release, furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference, announcing the Company's selected summary financial results for its thirteen and fifty-two weeks ended December 27, 2025. The information provided pursuant to Item 2.02, including the exhibit attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 4, 2025, Hillman Solutions Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release, furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference, announcing the Company's selected summary financial results for its thirteen and thirty-nine weeks ended September 27, 2025. The information provided pursuant to Item 2.02, including the exhibit attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of th…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangement of Certain Officers. On September 16, 2025, Hillman Solutions Corp. (the “Company”) and Scott C. Ride, President of Hillman Canada, entered into a separation letter agreement (the "Separation Agreement") in connection with his upcoming departure from the Company on September 29, 2025. Mr. Ride's departure was previously disclosed on a Form 8-K filed by the Company on Au…
“Affirms 2026 guidance of $100 million to $120 million of Free Cash Flow.”
“Free Cash Flow 1 $100 to $120 million”
“Affirms 2026 guidance of $100 million to $120 million of Free Cash Flow”
“Affirms 2026 guidance of $275 million to $285 million in Adjusted EBITDA.”
“Adjusted EBITDA 1 $275 to $285 million”