Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN)

NASDAQIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$7.20-2.17%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Hillman Solutions Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	411.08M
EPS	—	0.139
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$1.67B–$1.72B	1.68B
EPS	—	0.584
EBITDA	About $285Mnon-GAAP	—
Free cash flow	$105M–$115M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.8B
EPS	—	0.682

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $275 million in 2026	Profit goals are $275M to $285M adjusted EBITDA.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $275 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow stays between $100M and $120M in 2026	It aims for $100M to $120M free cash flow.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $100 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $70.216M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $100 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202670,216,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Free cash flow rose significantly from $31.2 million in 2025-Q2 to $70.2 million in 2026-Q2. Management reiterated and slightly raised the 2026 free cash flow guidance midpoint to $105-$115 million. The trajectory is delivering on this capital allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
2026 revenue reaches at least $1.63 billion	A primary condition in Hillman Solutions Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.63 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.53 billion in FY26	Revenue: $442.251M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.63 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026442,251,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7e4a368f-7dc8-4883-a89f-cfaa8d0d6d18. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management raised full-year 2026 net sales guidance from $1.630-$1.730 billion to $1.670-$1.720 billion, reflecting acquisitions and organic growth. Revenue increased from $370.1 million in 2026-Q1 to $442.3 million in 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering on this guidance increase. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$1.80B

$1.74B → $1.80B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$1,744,146,857	4 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$1,744,146,857	4 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$1,744,146,857	4 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$1,744,146,857	4 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$1,744,146,857	4 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$1,744,146,857	4 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,744,146,857	4 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$1,744,146,857	4 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$1,744,146,857	4 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$1,744,146,857	4 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$1,744,146,857	4 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$1,744,146,857	4 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$1,744,146,857	4 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$1,744,146,857	4 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$1,787,420,167	4 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$1,787,420,167	4 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$1,787,420,167	4 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$1,787,420,167	4 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$1,787,420,167	4 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$1,787,420,167	4 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$1,787,420,167	4 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$1,787,420,167	4 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$1,787,420,167	4 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$1,787,420,167	4 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$1,787,420,167	4 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$1,787,420,167	4 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$1,799,936,833	3 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$1,799,936,833	3 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$1,799,936,833	3 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$1,799,936,833	3 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$1,799,936,833	3 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$1,799,936,833	3 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$1,799,936,833	3 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$1,799,936,833	3 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$1,799,936,833	3 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$1,799,936,833	3 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$1,799,936,833	3 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$1,799,936,833	3 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$1,799,936,833	3 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$1,799,936,833	3 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$1,799,936,833	3 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$1,799,936,833	3 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$1,799,936,833	3 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$1,799,936,833	3 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$1,799,936,833	3 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$1,799,936,833	3 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$1,799,936,833	3 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$1,799,936,833	3 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$1,803,088,714	4 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$1,803,088,714	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$1,803,088,714	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$1,803,088,714	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$1,803,088,714	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$1,803,088,714	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$1,803,088,714	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$1,803,088,714	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$1,803,088,714	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$1,803,088,714	4 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$1,803,088,714	4 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$1,803,088,714	4 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$1,803,088,714	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$1,803,088,714	4 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$1,803,088,714	4 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$1,803,088,714	4 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$1,803,088,714	4 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$1,803,088,714	4 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$1,803,088,714	4 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$1,803,088,714	4 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$1,803,088,714	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$1,803,374,429	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$1,803,374,429	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$1,803,374,429	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$1,803,374,429	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$1,803,374,429	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$1,803,374,429	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$1,803,374,429	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$1,803,374,429	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$1,803,374,429	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$1,803,374,429	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$1,803,374,429	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$1,803,374,429	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$1,803,374,429	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$1,803,374,429	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$1,803,374,429	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$1,803,374,429	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$1,803,374,429	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$1,803,374,429	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$1,803,374,429	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$1,801,746,143	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$1,801,746,143	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$1,801,746,143	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$1,801,746,143	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	2
2026-06-01	6	2
2026-07-01	6	2
2026-08-01	6	2
2026-09-01	6	2
2026-10-01	6	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $275 million in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Free cash flow stays between $100M and $120M in 2026Free cash flow: $70.216M
2026 revenue reaches at least $1.63 billionRevenue: $442.251M

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-35.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Hillman Solutions Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is an acquisition-led growth story, not yet a proven profitable compounder, since the evidence describes earnings quality as loss-making. The thesis is intact, but confidence has eased to medium as management execution and the next guidance update remain important.

What's priced into Hillman Solutions Corp.

Valuation evidence is mixed: HLMN is described as cheap versus peers, while the model also reports a 52% premium versus peers and an expectations gap of -0.32. The priced-in tag is justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to concentrated expectations risk.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management is delivering on its priorities: revenue rose from the first to the second quarter of 2026, 2026 sales guidance was raised, and adjusted EBITDA increased year over year. Acquisitions are expanding industrial MRO, meaning maintenance, repair, and operations distribution, but losses and a sector headwind remain; the next call could test the reaffirmed guidance.

What Hillman Solutions Corp. hinges on

Over the next year, the thesis hinges on whether acquired businesses and organic growth support the raised 2026 guidance and whether adjusted EBITDA reaches management’s stated goal. Near-term sector signals also matter: continued strength at SNA, SWK, and RBC could support the industrial backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.