Reading HDSN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HDSN free→Reading HDSN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HDSN free→
NASDAQMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is fragile, and management's track record is volatile. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 31% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. If HDSN cuts guidance on the next call, that could be negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.59. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $5.59 HDSN trades at 15× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $8.07 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 31% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted -2.12x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.20 → $0.17 (-19.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$164.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$344.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,364.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into Hudson's performance and future guidance. This can affect investor sentiment.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows revenue growth. It also shows better profit margins than before.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows falling revenue and profit margins. This raises worries about future results.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HDSN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement See
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Specialty Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HDSN Hudson Technologies, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | moderate |
ECL Ecolab | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PPG PPG Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LYB LyondellBasell | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | — | moderate |
14 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated volatile grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=235).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Achieve revenue between $73 million and $76 million for the second quarter of 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Revenue grew from $44.41 million in 2025-Q4 to $60.15 million in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the 2026-Q2 target of $73 - 76 million. The trajectory shows positive growth, aligning with management's guidance.
“Hudson's second quarter 2026 revenue outlook is $73 - 76 million.”
Continue to engage in mergers and acquisitions to enhance business capabilities.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has been active in M&A, with recent agreements and acquisitions, such as the acquisition of Denver Refrigerants, Inc. This indicates a recurring focus on growth through strategic acquisitions, though specific financial impacts are not detailed.
“HDSN entered into a Material Definitive Agreement for M&A activity.”
Focus on effective capital allocation strategies, including credit facility amendments.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company has focused on capital allocation by amending its credit agreement, indicating a strategic approach to managing financial obligations. However, the financial impact of this amendment is not explicitly detailed in the current disclosures.
“Hudson entered into a Fifth Amendment to Amended and Restated Credit Agreement.”
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth could mean the materials sector is recovering. This might help Hudson's outlook.
Confirms:Materials sector revenue growth turns positive after being near -1 percent.
Disproves:Materials sector revenue growth is still negative. This shows the sector is still shrinking.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026, Hudson Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant Revolving Credit Facility Amendment On May 19, 2026, Hudson Technologies Company (“HTC”) and Hudson Holdings, Inc. (“Holdings”), as borrowers (collectively, the “Borrowers”), and Hudson Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”) as a guarantor, entered into a Fifth Amendment to Amended and Restated Credit Agreement dated May 19, 2026 (the “Fifth Amendment”) with Wells Fargo Bank, National…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Election of New Directors On April 10, 2026, upon the recommendation of the Nominating and Governance Committee, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Hudson Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”) elected Alan Sheriff and Jeffrey R. Feeler to the Board, effective immediately. Mr. Sheriff’s term will expire at the Company’s annual meeting of stockholde…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On March 4, 2026, Hudson Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.
“Hudson announced the acquisition of the business assets of Denver Refrigerants, Inc.”