Reading GRNT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GRNT free→Reading GRNT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GRNT free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If GRNT cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $4.70. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $4.69 GRNT trades at 14× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $4.56 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 4% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
Over the trailing year it converted -8.59x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=329).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.16 → $0.08 (-52.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$169.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$468.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,416.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth improves, it may signal a recovery for Granite Ridge. This could boost its performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth exceeds 2% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 2% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GRNT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As described in
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GRNT Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 13 of 100 | full | elevated |
COP ConocoPhillips | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
EOG EOG Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | full | moderate |
OXY Occidental Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FANG Diamondback Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to keep cash general and administrative expenses within the $25M to $27M range for fiscal year 2026.
The company has set its capital expenditure guidance for fiscal year 2026 between $345M and $385M.
The company is focusing on improving its operating income, which has shown fluctuations over recent quarters.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Granite Ridge Resources, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“the Company”), issued a press release announcing its financial and operating results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 and updating its 2026 guidance. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 5, 2026, Granite Ridge Resources, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“the Company”), issued a press release announcing its financial and operating results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025 as well as 2026 guidance. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 4, 2026, the board of directors (the “Board”) of Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. (the “Company”) approved the appointment of Ronald Kyle Kettler as Chief Financial Officer of the Company, effective as of February 9, 2026 (the “Effective Date”). Mr. Kettler succeeds Kim Weimer, who will continue to serve as the Company’s Chief Accounting O…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Amendment No. 1 to Management Services Agreement On December 10, 2025 (the “Amendment Date”), Granite Ridge Resources, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), entered into Amendment No. 1 to the Management Services Agreement (“Amendment No. 1”) amending the Company’s existing Management Services Agreement, dated October 24, 2022, by and between the Company and Grey Rock Administration, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (prior to the Am…