Reading GGG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating that cash flow does not strongly back reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, suggesting challenges in the industry. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact GGG's performance. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $75.20. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $75 GGG trades at 26× p/e, in line with its 24× p/e peer median. Our $80 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 6% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.31x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.81 → $0.81 (-0.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 36% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$80.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$204.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,226.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how Graco is doing in a tough market.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) exceeds analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Confirms the other:EPS falls short of analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GGG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 12, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Graco Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Mr. Steven B. Hedlund to serve as a director of the Company, effective September 10, 2026. Mr. Hedlund was appointed to the class of directors whose terms expire at the 2027 annual meeting of shareholders of the Company. Mr. Hedlund has been appointed to…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GGG Graco Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | low |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Aim for an average annual revenue growth of over 10%, with two-thirds from core business growth.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $528.3M in 2025-Q1 to $540.1M in 2026-Q1. The trajectory shows limited progress towards the 10% annual growth target, indicating a need for stronger growth acceleration.
“Increase revenue by 10%+ annually on average, with about two-thirds from core business growth.”
“Targeted Revenue CAGR 10%”
“Increase revenue by 10%+ annually on average.”
Strengthen growth by focusing on strategic mergers and acquisitions.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. While the focus on M&A is clear, the financials do not provide specific evidence of recent acquisitions contributing to revenue growth. The trajectory shows persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
“Accelerate growth through M&A.”
“Strengthen our balanced approach to growth by increasing focus on strategic mergers and acquisitions.”
Focus on driving measurable revenue and margin growth from core product lines.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross profit decreased from $306.7M in 2025-Q4 to $280.6M in 2026-Q1, indicating challenges in driving growth from core products. The trajectory shows recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
Why it matters: Closing this deal would show Graco's commitment to growth through M&A. It could enhance their product offerings and market reach.
Confirms:The acquisition will close as planned in Graco's fiscal third quarter. There are no delays.
Disproves:The acquisition may face big delays or fail to close. This is due to unmet conditions.
Why it matters: Caterpillar's strong RFP status may change how Graco competes.
Confirms one read:Caterpillar has a big rise in new contracts or RFP wins.
Confirms the other:Caterpillar's RFP status gets weaker or does not improve.
Why it matters: Sanjiv Gupta's leadership can affect Graco's money plans and growth. His experience may help performance.
Confirms:Gupta's appointment brings good changes in money plans and performance.
Disproves:There are no clear changes in money plans or performance is still weak.
Why it matters: More people are filing for unemployment. This may hurt Graco's sales.
Confirms:Unemployment claims rise above 300,000.
Disproves:Unemployment claims fall below 250,000.
Why it matters: If Graco exceeds this growth target, it will help increase revenue by over 10% each year.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift in the sector's maturity phase.
Confirms:Revenue growth is speeding up to 10% each year.
Disproves:Revenue growth keeps slowing down to below 5% each year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift for Graco and its peers.
Confirms:3-year revenue growth in the industrials sector increases back toward 8% or higher.
Disproves:3-year revenue growth remains at 6% or declines further.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 2, 2026, Graco Inc. (the “Company”) announced that Sanjiv Gupta has been appointed as Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of the Company, effective April 15, 2026. Mr. Gupta succeeds David M. Lowe, who gave notice on February 27, 2026 of his intention to retire as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, the role in which he…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 12, 2026, Brett C. Carter notified the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Graco Inc. (the "Company") of his decision to resign as a member of the Company’s Board effective February 13, 2026. Mr. Carter’s resignation is not due to any disagreement with the Board or Company management on any matter relating to the Company’s operations, p…
“Accelerate growth through M&A.”
“Drive measurable revenue and margin growth from our core product lines.”
“Drive growth from core products.”
“Drive growth from core products.”