Graco Inc. (GGG)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-23

$66.99-3.31%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Graco Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.48 → 3.46 EPS · FY ending Dec 26, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-25
Revenue	—	628.54M
EPS	—	0.826
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	584.24M
EPS	—	0.774
Annual ending 2026-12-26
Revenue	—	2.35B
EPS	—	3.231
Annual ending 2027-12-26
Revenue	—	2.53B
EPS	—	3.464

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Successful integration of Valco Melton acquisition	The Valco Melton deal supports this growth.	Under Pressure	acquisition fails to contribute to revenue growth or causes disruption	Q3 revenue missed estimates Graco Q3 2026 results missed estimates, causing a 7% stock drop, despite record sales. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 1 supplied transcript quarter, 2026-Q2. The supplied financials report total company revenue of $586,385,000 in 2026-Q3 but do not isolate acquisition contribution or identify a specific acquisition announced this quarter. M&A is a stated growth priority, with limited substantive delivery evidence in this bundle. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain gross profit near recent levels (~$280M quarterly)	Profit margins remain stable near current levels.	Intact	gross profit falls below $280M quarterly average	Gross profit: $296.223M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: gross profit >= $280M per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 21, 2026296,223,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 25, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a175e9b9-22dd-4307-adbe-42c8a7da8498. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Annual revenue growth at or above 6.6%	A primary condition in Graco Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=6.6% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 6.6% in FY26	Revenue growth: 7.92% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=6.6% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 21, 20267.91872 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 25, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a175e9b9-22dd-4307-adbe-42c8a7da8498. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 1 supplied transcript quarter, 2026-Q2. Revenue was $586,385,000 in 2026-Q3; the supplied financials do not establish delivery against the long-term annual growth ambition. This remains a stated growth objective, with limited substantive evidence of progress in this bundle. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-26 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.46

$3.43 → $3.46 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.53B

$2.47B → $2.53B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.43	$2,470,330,700	8 / 8
2026-07-25	$3.43	$2,470,330,700	8 / 8
2026-07-26	$3.48	$2,469,963,010	8 / 8
2026-07-27	$3.48	$2,469,963,010	8 / 8
2026-07-28	$3.48	$2,469,963,010	8 / 8
2026-07-29	$3.48	$2,469,963,010	8 / 8
2026-07-30	$3.49	$2,458,167,444	8 / 8
2026-07-31	$3.49	$2,458,167,444	8 / 8
2026-08-01	$3.49	$2,458,167,444	8 / 8
2026-08-02	$3.49	$2,458,167,444	8 / 8
2026-08-03	$3.49	$2,458,167,444	8 / 8
2026-08-04	$3.49	$2,458,167,444	8 / 8
2026-08-05	$3.49	$2,458,167,444	8 / 8
2026-08-06	$3.49	$2,458,167,444	8 / 8
2026-08-07	$3.49	$2,458,167,444	8 / 8
2026-08-08	$3.49	$2,458,167,444	8 / 8
2026-08-09	$3.49	$2,458,167,444	8 / 8
2026-08-10	$3.49	$2,458,167,444	8 / 8
2026-08-12	$3.49	$2,458,167,444	8 / 8
2026-08-13	$3.49	$2,458,167,444	8 / 8
2026-08-14	$3.49	$2,458,167,444	8 / 8
2026-08-15	$3.49	$2,458,167,444	8 / 8
2026-08-16	$3.49	$2,458,167,444	8 / 8
2026-08-17	$3.49	$2,458,167,444	8 / 8
2026-08-18	$3.49	$2,458,167,444	8 / 8
2026-08-19	$3.49	$2,458,167,444	8 / 8
2026-08-20	$3.50	$2,457,945,222	8 / 8
2026-08-21	$3.50	$2,457,945,222	8 / 8
2026-08-22	$3.50	$2,457,945,222	8 / 8
2026-08-23	$3.50	$2,457,945,222	8 / 8
2026-08-24	$3.50	$2,457,945,222	8 / 8
2026-08-25	$3.50	$2,457,945,222	8 / 8
2026-08-26	$3.50	$2,457,945,222	8 / 8
2026-08-27	$3.50	$2,457,945,222	8 / 8
2026-08-28	$3.50	$2,457,945,222	8 / 8
2026-08-29	$3.49	$2,457,945,222	7 / 8
2026-08-30	$3.49	$2,457,945,222	7 / 8
2026-08-31	$3.49	$2,457,945,222	7 / 8
2026-09-01	$3.49	$2,457,945,222	7 / 8
2026-09-02	$3.49	$2,457,945,222	7 / 8
2026-09-03	$3.49	$2,457,945,222	7 / 8
2026-09-04	$3.49	$2,457,945,222	7 / 8
2026-09-05	$3.49	$2,457,945,222	7 / 8
2026-09-06	$3.49	$2,457,945,222	7 / 8
2026-09-07	$3.49	$2,457,945,222	7 / 8
2026-09-08	$3.49	$2,457,945,222	7 / 8
2026-09-09	$3.49	$2,457,945,222	7 / 8
2026-09-10	$3.49	$2,457,945,222	7 / 8
2026-09-11	$3.49	$2,457,945,222	7 / 8
2026-09-12	$3.49	$2,457,945,222	7 / 8
2026-09-13	$3.49	$2,457,945,222	7 / 8
2026-09-14	$3.49	$2,457,945,222	7 / 8
2026-09-15	$3.49	$2,457,945,222	7 / 8
2026-09-16	$3.48	$2,463,278,556	7 / 7
2026-09-17	$3.48	$2,463,278,556	7 / 7
2026-09-18	$3.48	$2,463,278,556	7 / 7
2026-09-19	$3.48	$2,463,278,556	7 / 7
2026-09-20	$3.48	$2,463,278,556	7 / 7
2026-09-21	$3.48	$2,463,278,556	7 / 7
2026-09-22	$3.48	$2,463,278,556	7 / 7
2026-09-23	$3.48	$2,463,278,556	7 / 7
2026-09-24	$3.48	$2,463,278,556	7 / 7
2026-09-25	$3.48	$2,463,278,556	7 / 7
2026-09-26	$3.48	$2,463,278,556	7 / 7
2026-09-27	$3.48	$2,463,278,556	7 / 7
2026-09-28	$3.48	$2,463,278,556	7 / 7
2026-09-29	$3.48	$2,463,278,556	7 / 7
2026-09-30	$3.48	$2,463,278,556	7 / 7
2026-10-01	$3.48	$2,463,278,556	7 / 7
2026-10-02	$3.48	$2,463,278,556	7 / 7
2026-10-03	$3.48	$2,463,278,556	7 / 7
2026-10-04	$3.48	$2,463,278,556	7 / 7
2026-10-05	$3.48	$2,463,278,556	7 / 7
2026-10-06	$3.48	$2,463,278,556	7 / 7
2026-10-07	$3.49	$2,480,323,000	7 / 7
2026-10-08	$3.49	$2,480,323,000	7 / 7
2026-10-09	$3.49	$2,480,323,000	7 / 7
2026-10-10	$3.49	$2,480,323,000	7 / 7
2026-10-11	$3.49	$2,480,323,000	7 / 7
2026-10-12	$3.49	$2,480,323,000	7 / 7
2026-10-13	$3.49	$2,480,323,000	7 / 7
2026-10-14	$3.49	$2,480,323,000	7 / 7
2026-10-15	$3.52	$2,497,334,111	7 / 7
2026-10-16	$3.52	$2,497,356,333	7 / 7
2026-10-17	$3.52	$2,497,356,333	7 / 7
2026-10-18	$3.52	$2,497,356,333	7 / 7
2026-10-19	$3.52	$2,497,356,333	7 / 7
2026-10-20	$3.52	$2,497,356,333	7 / 7
2026-10-21	$3.52	$2,497,356,333	7 / 7
2026-10-22	$3.50	$2,501,134,111	7 / 7
2026-10-23	$3.49	$2,513,349,889	8 / 8
2026-10-24	$3.46	$2,525,493,189	8 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	7
2026-06-01	4	7
2026-07-01	4	8
2026-08-01	3	8
2026-09-01	3	8
2026-10-01	4	7

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Robert W. BairdOct 23 · prior Jul 24

$94.00 → $80.00-14.9%

RBC CapitalOct 23 · prior Jul 24

$96.00 → $82.00-14.6%

$0$52.80$105.60

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Successful integration of Valco Melton acquisitionPublished status: Under Pressure
Maintain gross profit near recent levels (~$280M quarterly)Gross profit: $296.223M
Annual revenue growth at or above 6.6%Revenue growth: 7.92%

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-29.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Graco Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

GGG is a steady industrial business with a multi-year growth thesis, rather than a clear turnaround or high-growth story. The thesis is currently intact, with recent company momentum improving, but the evidence snapshot rates recent financial performance as neutral.

What's priced into Graco Inc.

The valuation evidence points to GGG being cheap versus peers, while the overall priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is close to neutral, so the snapshot does not suggest that unusually high or low expectations dominate the thesis.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has stated goals for annual revenue growth, acquisitions, and core-product growth, but the supplied results do not show whether those goals are being delivered. Near term, the risk is moderate: the snapshot notes consecutive earnings misses, even though recent performance remains in the top half of the industry.

What Graco Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on management turning its growth priorities into measurable revenue and margin progress. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued strength among industrial bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance from those peers could weaken it.