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Gevo, Inc. (GEVO)
NASDAQMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$1.45+1.40%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, GEVO is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 90% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Materials
- Industry
- Specialty Chemicals
- Market cap
- $340.78M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2010-08-12
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-10
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.45. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$0.74consensus
Range $0.74 – $0.74
vs price: +95% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$1.87consensus
Range $1.87 – $1.87
vs price: -22% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratingmedium confidence
At $1.43 GEVO trades at 3× p/s — 1.9× the 1× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $0.74 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
2.7x
peer 1.4x · own history —
Premium
1.9x peer
Growth the price needs
94%
our forecast 100%
Our fair value
$0.74
range $0.74 – $0.74
WhyEarnings too small for P/E
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensive12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 94% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 100%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated weak grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=1088).
27th pctl · Materials
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 0.31x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatile13 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Materials names rated volatile grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=235).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish3 analysts, 50% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.02 → $-0.02 (+0.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.1% above current price.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: materials is in (~0.8 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$213.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$670.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,955.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for management score changes in the next earnings report
Why it matters: A big change in management score may show a better company direction or plan.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management score increases by more than 5 points in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Management score decreases or stays the same in the next earnings report.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GEVO yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Materials sector revenue growth turning positive
- Watch for trends in unemployment claims impacting demand
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Downside triggers
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Gevo, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-6.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.