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Grid Dynamics Holdings, Inc. (GDYN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this month
$6.35+0.47%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and risk is elevated. Earnings quality is robust, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind, which may support the company. Peer multiples imply a price about 23% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If GDYN cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Information Technology Services
- Market cap
- $528.52M
- Employees
- 4,961
- IPO date
- 2018-09-12
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.35. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$5.31consensus
Range $3.83 – $7.08
vs price: +20% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$8.22consensus
Range $7.33 – $17.18
vs price: -23% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $6.35 the market pays 17× p/e — above the 10× p/e peer median but in line with its own 27× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $4.92 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $8.00–$12. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
16.7x
peer 9.9x · own history 26.6x
Premium
1.7x peer
0.6x its own history
Growth the price needs
29%
our forecast 6%
Our fair value
$4.92
range $3.83 – $7.22
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 29% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
2nd pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 7.51x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
93rd pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish6 analysts, 83% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.11 → $0.11 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 6 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.5% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): tailwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$184.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$581.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,738.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 18d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth below 10%
Why it matters: This would show that Grid Dynamics is struggling to grow its sales. It is a key focus for management.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GDYN yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for GDYN and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like IBM, ACN, and CTSH keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting GDYN and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If GDYN raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If GDYN cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like IBM, ACN, and CTSH start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping GDYN and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-301mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Grid Dynamics Holdings, Inc. issued a press release announcing its results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 19…
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.