Reading FUL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FUL free→Reading FUL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FUL free→NYSEMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is mixed, indicating some inconsistency in cash backing reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind, suggesting challenges in the current environment. Peer multiples imply a price about 26% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact FUL's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $64.40. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $64 FUL trades at 15× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $85 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $58–$73. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 24% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.96x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1297).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.40 → $1.40 (-0.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 7 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 71% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -4.2% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$136.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$337.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,697.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would show a recovery from the recent 6.6% drop.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth was above 0% compared to last year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth was below -1% compared to last year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FUL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 25, 2026, H.B. Fuller Company (the “Company”) announced its operating results for the first quarter ended February 28, 2026. A copy of the press release that discusses this matter is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to, and incorporated by reference in, this report. The information in this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$58.00 – $73.00 (median $60.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Specialty Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FUL H.B. Fuller Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | fair | moderate |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | moderate |
ECL Ecolab | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PPG PPG Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LYB LyondellBasell | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | — | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated stable grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=210).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on expanding margins by leveraging global sourcing strength and maintaining a focused approach to cost and portfolio management.
Drive revenue growth by implementing strategic pricing initiatives and leveraging acquisitions.
Pursue a transformation journey towards achieving a greater than 20% EBITDA margin.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into H.B. Fuller's performance and outlook. It can affect investor sentiment.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 3% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue decline or growth below 1% year over year.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how the company is doing. It will also show market conditions.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth or improved margins compared to prior quarters.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows that revenue is still going down. It also shows margin compression.
Why it matters: Important economic indicators may affect how the materials sector performs. They will also affect H.B. Fuller’s outlook.
Confirms one read:Economic indicators like CPI and PPI are improving. This boosts sentiment in the sector.
Confirms the other:Indicators show that the economy is getting worse. This hurts feelings in the sector.
Why it matters: If revenue growth improves, it may signal a shift from the mature phase to growth. This could benefit H.B. Fuller.
Confirms:Three-year revenue growth in the materials sector rises above 2%.
Disproves:Three-year revenue growth in the materials sector stays below 1%.
Why it matters: Results from the pricing initiative will show if the company can manage costs and improve margins. This is crucial for profitability.
Confirms one read:The pricing initiative works well. It leads to better gross margins in Q2 2026.
Confirms the other:The pricing initiative fails to improve gross margins in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A margin over 20% shows good cost and portfolio management. This helps long-term profits.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA margin goes over 20% in Q2 2026. This shows successful margin growth.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA margin stays below 20% in Q2 2026.
Departure of Dir e ctors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (d) On October 2, 2025, the Board of Directors of H.B. Fuller Company (the “Company”) elected Celine Martin, age 51, as a Class III director of the Company, effective December 1, 2025, for an initial term expiring at the Company’s 2026 annual meeting of shareholders. Ms. Martin will serve on the Audit Committee and the Compensation Committee of t…