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Eton Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ETON)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$32.15+1.77%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 542% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. If ETON reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising, that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
- Market cap
- $865.33M
- Employees
- 44
- IPO date
- 2018-08-10
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $32.15. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$4.74consensus
Range $3.41 – $6.43
vs price: +579% above
Method agreement — · 4 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$16.79consensus
Range $16.79 – $16.79
vs price: +92% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $32, ETON's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 16× p/s (6.7× the 2× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~670% near-term growth vs our ~72% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $4.10 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
16.5x
peer 2.5x · own history —
Premium
6.7x peer
Growth the price needs
670%
our forecast 72%
Our fair value
$4.10
range $3.40 – $5.48
WhyPeer anchor understates a real premiumOptionality our model can't price
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 579% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 72%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
81st pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -10.70x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to long-term interest rates, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
NeutralEPS revised -5.0% / 30d, n=1for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.20 → $0.19 (-5.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
2 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.5 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$256.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$447.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,617.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayMedium confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for Eton's financial performance in the next earnings report
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can improve its loss-making status.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Eton reports smaller losses. It is moving closer to making money.
Confirms the other:Eton reports bigger losses. There is no improvement in its finances.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ETON yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth re-acceleration in Health Care
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like TEVA, HLN, and ZTS keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting ETON and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for ETON and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If ETON reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-14), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like TEVA, HLN, and ZTS start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping ETON and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If ETON misses again next quarter like this past one (a big miss of -50% on the 2026-03-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-1929d agoItem 2.01
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets As disclosed in Item 1.01, on May 18, 2026, the Company entered into a supply and distribution agreement for the United States commercialization rights to IMPAVIDO® (miltefosine) oral capsules with Supplier. The information in
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-15 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-15
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.