Reading ESPR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ESPR free→Reading ESPR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ESPR free→NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, ESPR trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 62% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern suggests potential issues due to weak financials or fragile earnings quality. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.15. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.15 ESPR trades at 2× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $10 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $3.16–$3.28. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 69% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 97%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.45x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.01 → $-0.07 (-944.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$91.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$699.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,319.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation rose by 10.1 points (from 46.2 to 56.3).
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Completing this merger is key for Esperion's growth strategy. It could enhance their market position.
Confirms:An official announcement says the merger is done. It also shares the timeline for integration.
Disproves:The merger has delays or regulatory issues that push back its completion.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ESPR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. As previously disclosed, on May 1, 2026, Esperion Therapeutics, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) with Essence Parent Inc., a Delaware corporation and an affiliate of ArchiMed SAS (“Parent”), and Essence MergerCo Inc., a Delaware corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of Parent (“MergerCo”), pursuant to which, subject to the terms and conditions thereof, MergerCo will merge with and into the Compa…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$3.16 – $3.28 (median $3.16) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-01
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Pharmaceuticals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ESPR Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 12 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | expensive | low |
MRK Merck & Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFE Pfizer | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | low |
14 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Esperion aims to complete the merger with Essence Parent Inc. as per the agreement announced.
Esperion is focused on improving its operating income, which has shown volatility.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows good cost management and financial health. This is key for investor trust.
Confirms:Operating income is trending up and improving each year.
Disproves:Operating income keeps going down or stays negative.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensation Arrangements of Certain Officers. Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders on May 28, 2026 (the “Annual Meeting”). As further described under
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Merger Agreement On May 1, 2026, Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. (the “ Company ”) entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) with Essence Parent Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ Parent ”), and Essence MergerCo Inc., a Delaware corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of Parent (“ MergerCo ”), pursuant to which, subject to the terms and conditions thereof, MergerCo will merge with and into the Company with the Company continui…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. (a) The Term Loan Facility On April 2, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into the First Amendment to Credit Agreement (the “Amendment”), by and among the Company, as the borrower, the lenders party thereto and GLAS USA LLC and GLAS Americas LLC, collectively, as the administrative agent for the lenders (the “Administrative Agent”). The First Amendment amends that certain Credit Agreement, dated as of Dece…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets On March 2, 2026, the Company entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) with Corstasis Therapeutics Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Corstasis”), Cirrus Transaction Subsidiary, Inc., a Delaware corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of the Company (“Merger Sub”) and certain other parties described therein. Pursuant to the Merger Agreement, on April 2, 2026, the Company completed the merger of Corstasis with and into…