Reading ESP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ESP free→Reading ESP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ESP free→AMEXIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, though the capital stance is capital unfriendly, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind, with ESP trading above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 43% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while earnings quality is fragile. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $59.73. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $60 ESP trades at 16× p/e, below its 33× p/e peer median. Our $93 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 36% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.84x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.91 → $0.96 (+5.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$202.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$515.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,917.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes can impact borrowing costs and demand for industrial products. This affects Espey's sales.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates during the June 17 meeting.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged during the June 17 meeting.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ESP yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant. On September 30, 2025, the Company engaged WithumSmith+Brown, PC (“Withum”) to audit the Company’s financial statements for the year ending June 30, 2026. Withum is the successor to Freed Maxick, P.C. (“FM”), the Company’s prior auditing firm. On August 1, 2025 Withum issued a press release reporting that FM had joined its practice with Withum. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electrical Components & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ESP Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ETN Eaton Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | full | moderate |
VRT Vertiv | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
EMR Emerson Electric | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BE Bloom Energy Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | high |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows how much people want to buy. This affects Espey's business.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase by more than 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decline by more than 0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a stronger industrial sector. This would benefit Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp.
Confirms:Revenue growth in the industrial sector increases back toward 10% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth is slowing down. It is now below 5% year over year.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On September 8, 2025 the Company entered a new Employment Agreement with David A. O’Neil, its President and Chief Executive Officer. The Employment Agreement is effective as of July 1, 2025 and has a term through June 30, 2028. The Agreement replaces Mr. O’Neil’s Employment Agreement dated June 6, 2024. The new Employment Agreement provides for a b…
Other Events On September 8, 2025 Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp. issued a press release announcing that the Company's Board of Directors had declared a special cash dividend of $0.75 per share. This special dividend is in addition to a regular dividend of $0.25 per share. The dividends will be payable on September 26, 2025 to all shareholders of record on September 19, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this report shall not be de…