Reading EPM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EPM free→Reading EPM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EPM free→AMEXEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
EPM's recent financial performance is neutral, and its management's track record is fairly steady. However, the company is currently unprofitable, so its earnings quality cannot be assessed. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, with EPM trading below typical levels compared to its peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 23% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.90. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.89 EPM trades at 2× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $3.28 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 19% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -22%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
Over the trailing year it converted -7.49x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=329).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.02 → $0.01 (+145.5% / 30d). 4 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$168.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$443.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,814.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The company's financial results will show if it can improve its loss-making status. This is crucial for investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Q2 2026 results show a reduction in losses compared to Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:Q2 2026 results show losses increase compared to Q1 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EPM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Occasionally our management discloses net income (loss) and net earnings (loss) per common share excluding selected items as well as Adjusted EBITDA. These measures are presented by our management as supplemental financial measures to allow external users of our financial statements, such as investors, commercial banks, and others, to assess our operating performance as compared to that of other companies in our industry, without regard to financing methods, capital structure, or historical c…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EPM Evolution Petroleum Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 5 of 100 | full | elevated |
COP ConocoPhillips | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
EOG EOG Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | full | moderate |
OXY Occidental Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FANG Diamondback Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on revenue growth by leveraging new production from Louisiana royalty acquisitions.
Continue the policy of paying a $0.12 per share dividend to shareholders.
Focus on improving cash flow from operations to support financial stability.
Why it matters: If revenue growth improves, it may signal a shift from a mature phase to growth. This could positively impact Evolution Petroleum's outlook.
Confirms:Three-year revenue growth in the energy sector rises above 2%.
Disproves:Three-year revenue growth stays at or below 2%.
Other Events. On May 11, 2026, the Company approved the declaration of a $0.12 per common share dividend for the fourth quarter of 2026 to shareholders of record on June 15, 2026 and payable on June 30, 2026.
Occasionally our management discloses net income (loss) and net earnings (loss) per common share excluding selected items as well as Adjusted EBITDA. These measures are presented by our management as supplemental financial measures to allow external users of our financial statements, such as investors, commercial banks, and others, to assess our operating performance as compared to that of other companies in our industry, without regard to financing methods, capital structure, or historical c…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 11, 2026, Evolution Petroleum Corporation (the “Company,” “we” or “our”) entered into a Sales Agreement (the “Sales Agreement”) with Roth Capital Partners, LLC (the “Lead Agent”), Northland Securities Inc. (“Northland”), and A.G.P./Alliance Global Partners (“AGP” and, together with the Lead Agent and Northland, the “Agents”) pursuant to which the Company may issue and sell, from time to time, up to $30,000,000 shares of common stock, par…
Other Events. On February 9, 2026, the Company approved the declaration of a $0.12 per common share dividend for the third quarter of 2026 to shareholders of record on March 16, 2026 and payable on March 31, 2026.