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VAALCO Energy, Inc. (EGY)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$5.44+0.37%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact the stock's performance. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas E&p
- Market cap
- $584.29M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1996-08-14
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.44. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$7.14consensus
Range $6.88 – $7.41
vs price: -24% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$7.86consensus
Range $7.86 – $7.86
vs price: -31% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $5.42 EGY trades at 1× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $7.33 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
1.5x
peer 1.8x · own history —
Premium
0.8x peer
Growth the price needs
-26%
our forecast -25%
Our fair value
$7.33
range $7.05 – $7.60
WhyEarnings too small for P/E
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 26% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -25%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated weak grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
16th pctl · Energy
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -0.99x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to rise when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +100.0% / 30d, n=1for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.04 → $0.08 (+100.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: energy is in mature, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$186.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$410.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,088.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'inexpensive' to 'fair'.
As of June 16, 2026, the valuation changed from inexpensive to fair. Risk fell, indicating a reduction in overall risk levels. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, suggesting ongoing challenges in the industry environment. Recent financial performance is weak, reflecting difficulties in earnings quality.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for Q2 2026 sales volumes between 16,800 and 18,300 NRI BOPD
Why it matters: Sales volumes are key to understanding growth. Meeting this range shows production is on track.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Sales volumes reported within the range of 16,800 to 18,300 NRI BOPD.
Disproves:Sales volumes are below 16,800 NRI BOPD.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-125d agoSeeking Alpha
Advances: Increase production and sales NRI volumes
FPSO coming online boosts production and sales volumes.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for energy revenue growth to pick up above 3% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like COP, EOG, and OXY keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting EGY and other Energy names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If EGY raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit EGY and other Energy names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If EGY cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like COP, EOG, and OXY start missing or guiding lower, the Energy tailwind helping EGY and other Energy names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, VAALCO Energy, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter of 2026 and guidance for the second quarter of 2026 and the remainder of 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. Presentation slides accompanying this earnings release are available on the Company’s website at www.vaalco.com located on the “Presentati…
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.